The Great Regional Decoupling & The "Warm Homes" Reality Check
Release Date: 02/03/2026
The Death of Leasehold & The London Construction Collapse
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says. We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government’s £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London’s Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest."...
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The Great Regional Decoupling & The "Warm Homes" Reality Check
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio? Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan, we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy. What we cover this week: Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic...
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The 2026 Mild Zombie Apocalypse - 2026's Kick Off!
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Media is Watching Greenland. I’m Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump’s rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn’t just populism; it’s market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it. Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the...
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2026 Predictions: Adam vs. AI, Trump-onomics & The "Real" UK Economy
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year’s worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!). We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK’s "Inclusive Wealth" accounts - proof that the economy...
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UK Property Market 2026: Trumpomics, Renters' Rights & The Golden Quarter
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK’s rental market and the "construction crisis" in...
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BoE Cuts to 3.75%: The "Output Trap," Rising Unemployment & The 2026 Investor Outlook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: ...
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The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK’s homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK’s housing failure. We then pivot to the...
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UK Housing Deep Dive: The 30-Year Mortgage Trap & Construction Collapse
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the...
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Supplement 30 Nov 25 - The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. ...
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2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new...
info_outlineIs your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio?
Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan, we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy.
What we cover this week:
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Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic cooperation are jerking the UK gilt and swap markets.
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The 2026 Property Snapshot: Real-time stats on the "glut" of New Year listings and the 22% gap between asking and sold prices.
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EPC C by 2030: A brutal look at the Warm Homes Plan. Is the £10,000 cap realistic, or will it force a mass landlord exodus?
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The Green Mortgage Myth: Why the 7.5 bps "green discount" is a rounding error, not an incentive.
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London’s Construction Cliff Edge: Analyzing the "Molly Report"—why private construction has plummeted 84% and the "mid-market trap" for £1,200/sq. ft. apartments.
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Regional Winners: Why Northern Ireland, Scotland, and the Northwest are seeing 90%+ of homes increase in value while the South stagnates.
Timestamps:
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[ 00:00 ] – Intro: "Show me the incentive, I’ll show you the outcome."
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[ 02:08 ] – Trumpomics, Greenland, and the impact on UK yields.
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[ 05:15 ] – UK Property Market Stats: The 2026 Week 2 breakdown.
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[ 11:25 ] – Macro Outlook: Unemployment, wage growth, and the 5.7% prediction.
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[ 33:30 ] – Deep Dive: The EPC "Warm Homes Plan" and the 2030 deadline.
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[ 48:40 ] – The Bank of England’s take on Green Mortgages.
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[ 55:05 ] – The London Development Collapse: "Zombie sites" and the construction cliff.
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[ 01:03:20 ] – Zupla 2025 Analysis: The Great Regional Decoupling.
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[ 01:12:40 ] – Outro & Upcoming Manchester Workshop details.
Links & Resources:
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Next Workshop: Property Business Workshop (Manchester - Wed 22nd April). Book here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten
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Follow Adam on Socials: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
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Subscribe to the Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
Keywords: UK Property Market 2026, EPC Regulations 2030, Warm Homes Plan, Buy to Let Strategy, UK Inflation, Green Mortgages, London Property Crash, Propenomix, Adam Lawrence, Real Estate Investing UK.