The Great Regional Decoupling & The "Warm Homes" Reality Check
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio? Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan, we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy. What we cover this week: Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic...
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The 2026 Mild Zombie Apocalypse - 2026's Kick Off!
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Media is Watching Greenland. I’m Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump’s rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn’t just populism; it’s market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it. Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the...
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2026 Predictions: Adam vs. AI, Trump-onomics & The "Real" UK Economy
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year’s worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!). We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK’s "Inclusive Wealth" accounts - proof that the economy...
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UK Property Market 2026: Trumpomics, Renters' Rights & The Golden Quarter
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK’s rental market and the "construction crisis" in...
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BoE Cuts to 3.75%: The "Output Trap," Rising Unemployment & The 2026 Investor Outlook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: ...
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The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK’s homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK’s housing failure. We then pivot to the...
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UK Housing Deep Dive: The 30-Year Mortgage Trap & Construction Collapse
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the...
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Supplement 30 Nov 25 - The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. ...
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2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new...
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Supplement 23 Nov 25 - Let's get it over with
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Budget - we’ve endured...
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**EXTRA EFFORT TO REACT COMMENT AND SHARE THIS WEEK PLEASE**
This week contains a draft for an Open Letter to Matthew Pennycook, MP - new Minister of State for housing (in case you missed it).
The Private Rental Sector needs to engage and be part of the solution - it's as simple as that - and dialogue needs to be opened.
PLEASE share, tag anyone you know who will be interested, send to your local MP, and similar.
Alongside that: Analysis of the Zoopla rental market report, which talks of cooling "new" rents in what will be welcome relief for everyone - an unsustainable bulldozer isn't what anyone wants.
The real-time market fueled by Christopher Watkin and his stats as usual
Consumption, growth and retail sales
The ONS price report (June) and rent report (July) dissected which tell a different (or lagging, more accurately) story compared to the Zoopla figures
The PMIs as the laggards still struggle to see that UK growth this year is nearly-nailed-on to be 1.5%-2%, the average forecaster is still predicting +1.1% even though we are +1.3% in just the first half of the year......weak.
Enjoy - and above all - Keep Calm and Carry On!
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