Libsyn Directory

The Power of Prediction

Release Date: 04/22/2026

Easy Prey

Ransomware has changed dramatically over the years. What started as criminals locking up individual computers and demanding relatively small payments has grown into a much larger operation involving stolen data, entire networks, third-party vendors, and increasingly sophisticated ways of pressuring victims to pay. Now AI is adding another wrinkle, giving criminals new tools while also creating some unexpected problems for them. Joining me to talk about how ransomware has evolved is Allan Liska, a ransomware researcher and Field CISO at Recorded Future. Allan has more than 30 years of...

The Counterfeit Economy

Easy Prey

A counterfeit handbag may leave someone disappointed. A counterfeit medication, airbag, or child’s car seat can do far more damage. Fake products now reach into nearly every part of daily life, and many of them arrive through online stores that look completely legitimate. Kari Kammel saw the danger firsthand when a pharmacist overseas offered her several versions of the same medication. Some were authentic, while others were openly described as counterfeit. That experience stayed with her. She now directs the Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection at Michigan State University,...

The Internet is Playing You

Easy Prey

A convincing lie no longer needs to look suspicious. It can appear in a familiar social media feed, come from someone who seems real, or arrive as a video that looks almost impossible to fake. By the time doubt sets in, the post may already have been shared thousands of times. Few people understand that online environment better than today’s guest. Nina Jankowicz has spent more than a decade studying what she calls the bad things that happen on the internet. She is an internationally recognized expert on disinformation and online harassment. She was also named one of Time magazine’s 100...

The Psychology of Yes

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It is easy to say you would never fall for a scam when you are looking at the situation from the outside. In the moment, though, things can feel much less obvious. A request may sound reasonable, the person may seem trustworthy, and saying no can feel awkward enough that you go along with something you would normally question. Today’s guest studies exactly why that happens. Vanessa Bohns is the Bronstein Family Professor and Chair of Organizational Behavior at Cornell University’s ILR School. Her work focuses on social influence, compliance, and the pressure people feel to cooperate, even...

Drink Spiking

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A drink can be out of your sight for only a moment, but that may be all it takes for someone to tamper with it. Spiking can happen in bars, restaurants, festivals, and even among people who already know and trust each other. It also goes far beyond alcohol. Drinks, food, vapes, cigarettes, and other substances can be altered without someone’s knowledge, leaving them vulnerable before they fully understand what is happening. Dawn Dines has spent more than 20 years working to change how people understand and respond to spiking. She is the founder and CEO of Stamp Out Spiking, a UK charity...

Love, Lies and Locked Up

Easy Prey

What sounds like the plot of a crime thriller was Sharon Armstrong’s real life. An online romance drew her into an elaborate web of lies involving overseas contracts, invented emergencies, and several people playing carefully planned roles. By the time she arrived at an airport in Argentina with five kilograms of cocaine hidden inside her suitcase, she still believed she was carrying business documents for the man she loved. Sharon was arrested and spent more than two years in an Argentinian prison before returning home without a conviction. During that time, she had to confront the truth of...

The Recruitment Trap

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Everybody is searching for ways to increase income. Unfortunately, MLMs often look like an easy way to start a business without taking on the cost of a traditional company. The pitch sounds simple. Buy the product, follow the plan, and put in the work. The numbers behind those promises often tell a different story. Today’s guest, Stacie Bosley, has spent years studying what really happens inside MLMs. She is a professor at Hamline University in Minnesota and holds a Ph.D. in applied economics. Her research covers multi-level marketing, consumer protection, income claims, and pyramid scheme...

Convincing Deepfakes

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A familiar voice on the phone or a recognizable face on a video call used to offer some reassurance that you knew who you were dealing with. AI has changed that. Voice cloning, face swaps, and real-time video impersonation now allow scammers to convincingly pose as executives, job candidates, romantic interests, or even family members. Understanding how these attacks work and where they may be headed is a central part of Tom Cross’s work as Head of Threat Research at GetReal Security. Tom has spent more than 30 years studying cybersecurity threats, software vulnerabilities, and the methods...

When Trust Becomes a Trap

Easy Prey

Most people use technology all day without giving much thought to what is happening behind the screen. We trust routers that may not have been updated in years, depend on internet systems few of us understand, and now turn to artificial intelligence for everything from travel plans to home repairs. That convenience comes with tradeoffs. In this episode, we look at the weaknesses built into our connected world and what happens when our technical knowledge fails to keep pace with the technology surrounding us. Sherrod DeGrippo leads threat intelligence for Unit 42 at Palo Alto Networks, where...

Scam Compounds

Easy Prey

When most people think about online scams, they picture criminals sitting behind a screen and stealing from victims around the world. But in Southeast Asia, many of the people sending those messages are victims too. Some were promised legitimate jobs, flown across borders, trapped inside guarded compounds, and forced to scam others while trying to survive. In this episode, I talk with Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the Center for Contemporary Chinese Studies Asia Institute. After years of studying labor rights, civil society, and Chinese investment in Cambodia,...

More Episodes

We make predictions all the time including about the weather, about traffic, about what someone is going to say next. It feels natural, even rational. But when algorithms start making predictions about us, whether we'll repay a loan, reoffend after prison, or respond to a medical treatment, something fundamental shifts. The forecast stops being a guess and starts becoming a verdict.

My guest today is Carissa Veliz, a philosopher and associate professor at the University of Oxford, where she also researches at the Oxford Internet Institute. Her work focuses on the ethics of technology, privacy, and artificial intelligence, and she advises companies and governments around the world on these issues. She's the author of the widely acclaimed book Privacy is Power, The Ethics of Privacy and Surveillance, and her new book, Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI, is out now.

We talk about how the role of prophet has simply changed costumes throughout history from oracles and astrologers to economists and now tech executives and why that matters more than most people realize. Carissa explains how predictions about human beings are fundamentally different from predictions about the weather, why so many AI-driven forecasts are closer to commands than hypotheses, and what it actually looks like to take back your agency in a world increasingly shaped by algorithms.

Show Notes:

[01:13] Carissa Veliz shares her background in philosophy, ethics, and advising companies and governments on technology and data.
[02:35] She explains how prediction has existed throughout human history, from survival instincts to ancient prophecy.
[03:49] The role of “prophets” evolves over time—from oracles and astrologers to economists, data scientists, and tech leaders.
[07:05] Predictions about people differ from predictions about nature because they can influence outcomes and become self-fulfilling.
[07:55] Many modern predictions, especially from tech leaders, function more like commands than neutral observations.
[10:13] Carissa outlines key questions to ask when evaluating any prediction, including who benefits if it comes true.
[10:13] She argues society has been overly naive about predictions, often mistaking power plays for objective knowledge.
[14:18] AI systems are designed to please users, which can conflict with truth-seeking and scientific rigor.
[14:54] Growing superstitions around AI include attributing agency, intention, or even spirituality to algorithms.
[15:47] People begin trying to “please the algorithm,” creating a modern version of superstition in digital systems.
[19:55] The lack of regulation in AI places the burden of understanding risks entirely on individuals.
[19:55] Carissa argues the real issue isn’t just bias, but whether predictions about people should be used at all.
[24:49] Insurance shifts from pooling risk across populations to targeting individuals, increasing inequality and personal burden.
[27:02] Self-fulfilling prophecies in medicine and decision-making can hide their own failures by erasing alternative outcomes.
[30:25] Predictive systems risk limiting human potential by filtering out those who don’t fit expected patterns.
[30:25] Society thrives when individuals can defy expectations, something prediction-heavy systems may suppress.
[35:21] Algorithms reduce exposure to randomness, while real-world interactions create unexpected opportunities and insight.
[36:11] Over-reliance on AI can replace human relationships and narrow life experiences.
[36:11] Carissa reframes uncertainty as a positive force that enables freedom, choice, and democratic possibility.
[36:11] She encourages treating predictions as possibilities to question—not instructions to follow.

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