Hotspotting
Melbourne’s property market remains the great under-achiever of the nation but that may be about to change. A number of key indicators suggest better performance by the Melbourne property market is imminent. One pointer to better times is the latest Property Sentiment survey by API magazine, which recorded a major turnaround in investor attitudes towards the Victorian property market. The survey asked: Which state or territory do you regard as having the best property investment prospects for the next 12 months? Mid-year Melbourne and Victoria attracted only 8.6...
info_outline Interest Rates & PricesHotspotting
I have frequently highlighted the poor track record of economists in predicting outcomes in real estate markets across Australia – and in particular the embarrassingly bad record of economists working for the Big 4 banks and for other major institutions like AMP Capital. Their forecasts for house prices at the beginning of each of the past five years have been so far off the mark, it’s puzzling that the big-name economists who made these blunders have kept their jobs. Because what these outcomes mean is that these boffins have a very poor understanding of residential real...
info_outline The Property Playbook - Shifting perspective: the key players in Australia’s housing crisisHotspotting
The Property Playbook is a dynamic real estate show that empowers investors and professionals with the insights and strategies needed to achieve strong returns in the Australian property market. Hosted by Tim Graham & Terry Ryder from Hotspotting. In this episode, Tim Graham is joined by Ben Kingsley, Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia. to discuss advocacy work for property investors amidst legislative changes and their impact on the housing market. Ben emphasises the need for balance in tenant rights and business returns and dissects the consequences of...
info_outline Smart Investing Achieve More Than 6% Yield Without Compromising GrowthHotspotting
Discover how to achieve the ultimate win-win in property investment: high rental yields and strong capital growth. In this replay of Hotspotting's exclusive webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, General Manager, reveal key insights from their groundbreaking "Pulse Report." Key Topics Covered: The Affordability Advantage: How affordable properties can outperform prime markets. Debunking the myth that cheap real estate doesn’t grow. Top Performing Locations: A spotlight on suburbs and regional areas delivering over 6% rental yields and up to 29%...
info_outline Vacancy Rates Remain Ultra LowHotspotting
It’s been 15 months since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made his big announcement about fixing the housing shortage – but there has been, as yet, no progress in lifting rental vacancies and suppressing rental growth. The press conference making the announcement that the Federal Government would build 1.2 million new homes in five years was held in August 2023 – but more than a year later it’s clear that little progress has been made and that rental vacancies are not improving. The latest figures on vacancy rates from SQM Research shows the national vacancy rate at...
info_outline Building Crisis: 5 reasons why things aren't improvingHotspotting
There are multiple reasons why Australia has a housing shortage and why the numbers of new dwellings needed are simply not being built. This is something I have spoken about regularly in the past and will continue to do so, as it’s the core issue creating problems for real estate consumers of all kinds – home buyers, investor buyers and tenants. Here are the latest events and announcements which help to explain why we have a housing shortage with rising prices and rising rents, problems which are not going to be fixed in the foreseeable future … ITEM 1 – BUREAUCATIC DELAYS: Sydney...
info_outline 20 Year Growth Rates: which areas have risen the mostHotspotting
If I asked you to nominate the market which had recorded the best long-term capital growth in Australia, what would your answer be? Sydney, the capital city with the nation’s highest property prices? Perth, which has had a booming property market lately and has led the nation on price growth for past couple of years? Brisbane, which always attracts strong demand from buyers of all sorts? Or perhaps Regional Queensland, which benefits from internal migrants moving from others parts of Australia and from investors seeking affordability and strong yields? The...
info_outline The Property Playbook - Learn the methods that can predict tomorrow’s property success todayHotspotting
The Property Playbook is a dynamic real estate show that empowers investors and professionals with the insights and strategies needed to achieve strong returns in the Australian property market. Hosted by Tim Graham & Terry Ryder from Hotspotting. In this episode, Tim is joined by Hotspotting Founder and Director Terry Ryder. As an experienced real estate expert, Terry Ryder shares insights on identifying prime real estate investment locations in Australia. He introduces the Price Predictor Index, a model that predicts short-term property growth based on sales volumes. Ryder emphasises the...
info_outline Interviews with the 1% - Lisa ChapmanHotspotting
Welcome to a special episode of Hotspotting’s pre-recorded interview series, Interviews with the 1%, where we dive into the strategies and journeys of Australia’s top investors—the elite 0.87% who own five or more properties. Hosted by Tim Graham, this series brings you invaluable insights from seasoned investors who have achieved what many aspire to. In today’s episode, we sit down with Lisa Chapman—a property entrepreneur, investor, and co-creator of the luxury retreat, Eden Yarra Valley. Lisa shares her journey from a high-powered corporate career to becoming a full-time property...
info_outline Uncover Hot Markets & Emerging Opportunities in Commercial Real EstateHotspotting
Host: Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting.com.au Guest: Steve Palise, Commercial Property Expert and Founder of Palise Property In this insightful webinar, Terry Ryder sits down with Steve Palise to explore the exciting world of commercial real estate. With decades of combined experience, Terry and Steve unpack key trends, strategies, and opportunities in non-residential property investment. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting to consider commercial property, this session is packed with actionable insights. Topics Covered: Why Investors Are Turning to Commercial Real Estate:...
info_outlineThere is one thing that Australian politicians are really good at – possibly the only thing - and that is diverting attention from the real issues and scapegoating others for the problems that they, the politicians, have caused.
Right now, the core issues impacting Australian households include the housing shortage, the high cost of creating desperately needed new homes, the chronic rental shortage and the reality that rents keep on rising.
It’s noteworthy that the recent AGM of the Commonwealth Bank reported that they have had to provide emergency payment arrangements to 132,000 customers who are struggling to pay their mortgage amid a cost of living crisis and very high interest rates.
We also have saturation media coverage of the plight of tenants paying higher and higher rents amid a chronic shortage.
So, what are politicians and journalists obsessing over? The issue of negative gearing.
Now, what relevance does negative gearing have to the issue of the housing shortages and the high cost of building new homes and the chronic shortage of rental properties?
The answer is: None.
It has no relevance whatsoever.
Scrapping negative gearing won’t fix any of these problems – but it will make some of them noticeably worse.
Recently columnist James Kirby wrote about this in The Australian.
He wrote:
“Experts are warning the government’s review of property tax concessions could make housing affordability worse, with New Zealand’s recent failed attempts to do something similar cited as an example of what could go wrong.
“After the NZ government cut tax incentives for property investors three years ago, the volume of investment funds entering the residential market halved. And as the supply of rental property evaporated, rental prices soared.”
Kirby wrote: “The attempt to change New Zealand’s version of negative gearing – and its capital gains tax regime – were widely seen to have backfired and a new government has since progressively reversed the original changes.”
However, Kirby points out, the Treasury in Canberra is now assessing the same tax territory with a review of negative gearing (where property investors can declare losses against tax) and Capital Gain Tax.
Kirby says: “While Anthony Albanese has distanced himself from the review – insisting it is an internal move by Treasury – tax changes around property investment are highly sensitive, especially as the ALP’s Shorten-era election loss was significantly due to unpopular plans to restrict investor tax incentives.”
Ray White group chief economist Nerida Conisbee says: “The current tax incentives ensure we have enough rental housing, if you cut those incentives you only have to look at New Zealand to see what may happen – New Zealand is now the least affordable rental market in the world.’’
Kirby wrote: “Put simply, making property investment less attractive will drive investors out of the market. The only question is the degree to which they will flee and that in turn depends on conditions at the time. In New Zealand the reform measures were imposed as prices were falling and interest rates were rising – exacerbating the blowback from investors who cut their funds in the NZ market from $21bn in 2021 to just $11.8bn in 2024.”
Kirby also referred to the fact that Paul Keating as Australian Federal Treasurer scrapped negative gearing in 1985 and then, two years later, reversed his decision and reinstated it in 1987.
And that was because the end to negative gearing benefits caused a shortage of housing across Australia and rents rose sharply.
It’s time for Australian politicians and journalists to stop obsessing over side issues like negative gearing and focus on the core issues in the housing industry – which is the shortage of dwellings, the high cost of fixing that shortage and in particular the chronic under-supply of rental properties.