We can all be Buffett, Kinda | Sell in May & Go Away?

🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

• Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel.
• Still remains Chairman
• Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s
• No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks
• His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision
• Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow
• Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65

🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett

• Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices
• Focus on permanent capital and compounding
• Keep your process simple and repeatable
• Don’t chase hype — focus on fundamentals
• South Africa's Chris Seabrooke noted as a local Buffett-like investor

🌸 "Sell in May and Go Away" – Myth Busted

• Simon critiques the old market adage.
• S&P returns from May–October average 0.49%, Nov–Apr average 1.02%
• Transaction costs, taxes, and missed rallies make timing unreliable
• Verdict: It's a nursery rhyme, not an investment strategy

🛢️ Oil Falling as OPEC Hikes Production

• OPEC+ accelerating production increases
• Brent now ~$60/barrel

Impacts:

• ✅ Good for fuel prices & oil consumers
• ❌ Bad for Sasol (though price hasn’t reacted much)
• 🏚️ Fracking rigs in US may shut down if prices fall further
• Possible geopolitical angle: helping Trump by lowering gas prices

💵 Rand Strengthens

• ZAR at R18.24/USD, nearing a key R18.30 technical level
• Boosted by stronger exports, higher gold prices
• Could trend toward R17 if momentum continues

🪙 Gold Surging Again

• Gold bouncing back above $3,000 after recent dip
• Driven by:
  • Central bank buying
  • Rebound in ETF inflows (especially in Europe, Asia, and US)
  • General inflation and recession fears
  • Upcoming FOMC decision adding fuel to the rally

🏛️ FOMC Decision This Week

• Fed expected to hold rates
• US inflation stickiness, strong jobs data, and political independence from Trump all in play
• Simon expects no change but criticizes SARB for being too hawkish despite low SA inflation (2.7%)

🧠 Palantir Results – Big Numbers, Big Risks

• Q1 Revenue up 39% YoY to $884M
• Customers up 39%, EPS (non-GAAP) at $0.13
• Price-to-book: 58x ⚠️
• EV-to-sales: 100x ⚠️
• Heavy stock-based comp = shareholder dilution
• Analysts split: mostly neutral or bearish
• You’re investing in Peter Thiel’s vision, not value metrics

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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