Gold took us up … and Gold will take us down

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ “Gold took us up … and gold will take us down.”

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🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it’s leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market’s ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year’s gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a “kangaroo-tail” reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn’t over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who “missed” gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

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💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

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🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 (“fair”).
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

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🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

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⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

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🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

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🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he’ll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

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🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven’t been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

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💬 Final Thought

“Gold gave us the party — and now it’s calling last rounds.”
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don’t lose the big picture.

Simon Brown
🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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