When Will The Markets Crash? | Optasia IPO Fails to Pop

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

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🎙️ This Week’s Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

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🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out.
🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

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🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon’s stance:
✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation
✔️ Holding
✔️ Looking to build the position over time

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🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units
➡️ Best October since 2014
📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season
✅ Still good news for motor retailers

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🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody’s, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue
  → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But…
💬 Citadel’s Maarten Ackerman: “Not so fast — upgrade may still take time.”

Key stat:
Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

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🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors):
  → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

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🌏 China–US Trade “Peace”?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality:
China still holds the real leverage here.

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📉 Market Crash Fears – Let’s Talk About It

✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don’t go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Market Type	Average Length	Average Move
Bull Market 🟢	5.3 years	+254%
Bear Market 🔴	1 year	-31%

Conclusion:
Staying invested wins — unless you’re already drawing retirement income.

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🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don’t know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don’t try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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