6-24-24 Avoid These Common Trading Mistakes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 06/24/2024
2-4-26 Q&A Wednesday: Your Questions, Real Answers
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today’s live YouTube Chat Q&A covers the full spectrum—earnings season takeaways, the selloff-to-rebound pattern, and the big debate around Big Tech, AI, and margins. We walk through where tech and AI leadership stand now, whether AI is pressuring software profitability, and the “real world” constraint markets may be underpricing: power demand (including what ERCOT could mean for data-center expansion). We also hit the energy transition angle—why wind/solar intermittency matters, the critical minerals push, and why fundamentals still matter when narratives run hot. On the...
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2-4-26 Dip Buyers Step In | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off sharply Tuesday, then bounced into the close—continuing a familiar pattern: when price tests the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), dip buyers step in. That’s been working, but it’s also how traders get trapped when the “buy-the-dip” playbook finally fails—so risk management matters. This morning, futures are pointing higher as the market tries to reclaim the 20-day moving average (20-DMA). Tuesday’s weakness was concentrated in mega-cap tech (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL), and early action suggests a bounce attempt. Meanwhile, the “heat map” continues to highlight...
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2-3-26 The Trap of Chasing Returns
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most investors don’t blow up because they “didn’t know enough.” They blow up because they frame the decision wrong. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down narrow framing—the behavior where investors judge one investment in isolation (“Why don’t I own that?”) instead of evaluating results through the entire portfolio and a long-term plan. When something becomes “hot,” it feels obvious, safe, and inevitable. But return-chasing often ends the same way: buying after a big run, then selling after the first real drawdown. That cycle turns investing into reaction instead of...
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2-3-26 Reflation Rotation | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Industrial and Basic Materials stocks are leading the “reflation” narrative—both have been strong, with Industrials tagging fresh highs and Materials extending a sharp run since December. The catch: these areas are increasingly overbought, and valuations eventually matter. The key question for 2026 is whether earnings and growth can “catch up” to prices that have already sprinted ahead. In this pre-market update, we walk through why disciplined investors rebalance to targets, take partial profits, and reduce risk without “selling everything.” We also highlight what rotations tend...
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2-2-26 Bears Are an Endangered Species
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts examines why bears have become an endangered species—and why that may be a warning sign rather than a confirmation of safety. Investor sentiment is extreme, margin debt is surging, speculative behavior is accelerating, and market leadership remains narrowly concentrated. When optimism becomes unanimous, history shows future returns tend to disappoint. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19- February & Earnings Season Continues 4:50 - The Action Behind Friday's Action 13:53 - Rationalizing Markets' Ups & Downs 15:23 - Percentage of Markets at All-new Highs 16:38 - The Reflationary Narrative...
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2-2-26 Rotation, Volatility, and Commodities Risk | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets delivered plenty of action Friday. The S&P 500 briefly broke below its 20-DMA but reversed higher, signaling that the broader uptrend remains intact despite rising volatility. Internally, markets continue to rotate—shifting between mega-cap growth and value—while staples have pushed toward overbought levels and technology has become increasingly oversold. We also explain the sharp moves in silver, gold, and oil. Commodity markets are driven by heavily leveraged futures positioning, and Friday’s decline reflected an unwinding of leverage—not a fundamental shock. With margin...
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1-30-26 Retirement Income When Markets Are Expensive
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets may still enjoy short-term momentum, but long-term retirement planning must confront a different reality: elevated valuations, lower forward returns, and rising sequence-of-returns risk. Richard Rosso explains why retirees face a near-term tailwind in market returns—but potentially long-term secular stagnation that demands tighter portfolio guardrails. Drawing on research from Michael Kitces and Wade D. Pfau, we discuss why historically tested retirement income strategies matter more today than at any point in the last two decades. Rich breaks down: Why short-term market strength can...
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1-29-26 Market Risks Behind Powell’s “Nonrestrictive” Stance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell’s message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Mega Reports & Fed Fallout 4:31 - Markets Struggle after 7,000 9:33 - Inflation, Truflation, & Labor 14:14 - Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower? 16:44 - Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable 19:10 - No Mention of QT/QE 21:10 - Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator 23:14 -...
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1-29-26 Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are testing the psychologically important 7,000 level—a major round-number threshold for investors. Momentum is turning back to a buy signal, and with no historical resistance above this level, a breakout could open the door toward the Fibonacci extension near 7,100. However, rising speculation and a sharp increase in margin debt signal growing leverage across markets—from equities to metals and miners. While this added leverage can push prices higher in the short term, it also raises downside risk if trades begin to unwind. With bullish trends intact but speculation elevated,...
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1-28-26 Q&A Wednesday, the YouTube Chatroom Free-for-all
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Welcome to Q&A Wednesday: The YouTube Chat Free-for-All — our most interactive show of the week. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer real-time questions straight from the YouTube live chat. No scripts. No pre-selected topics. Just timely, unfiltered discussion on the issues investors are wrestling with right now. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Major Mega Cap Earnings After the Bell Today 3:27 - Re-setting the Doomsday Clock 5:59 - Markets Set (Another) All-time High 11:31 - Metals as Assets - Where Are Retail Investors Piling In? 21:14 - Commodities are Just an Asset 22:33 - Dollar's Decline...
info_outlineMarket volatility closed out last week, as investors prepare to wrap June and Q2 business. Triple-witching Friday added to the excitement, and markets remain extremely over bought. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index has been negatice for 27-mos in a row; always a precessor of Recession. Lance discusses investors' two common mistakes when markets negatively diverge (w charts). A look at Market Cap Weighting vs Equal Weighting in porfolios; is it time for a clean-up? The problem with Economic Data and how it's derived: Sentiment surveys are not hard data points. Separate emotion from investing; measuring and managing risk. Lance's commentary on the week ahead.
SEG-1: Economic Data Does Not Agree w "Strong Economy"
SEG-2: Investors' Common Mistakes when Markets Diverge
SEG-3: Market Cap Weighting vs Equal Weighting
SEG-4: Problems w How Economic Data is Derived
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlAv5bqFHWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Bad Breadth Keeps Getting Worse"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Remain Over-bought" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_N5nG1kXUA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Could Tax Policy Shrink the Economy?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3o4Y6KSz1w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1316s
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REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee (6/29/24):
https://streamyard.com/watch/TX6irKYnjHnh
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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