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9-11-24 CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?

Release Date: 09/11/2024

The Real Investment Show Podcast

“Value is back,” the headlines say—so investors rush from mega-cap growth into “boring” staples, utilities, and healthcare. But here’s the problem: sector labels aren’t valuation metrics. In many cases, the so-called “value rotation” is an illusion—because investors may be rotating into expensive stocks while selling the actual value hiding inside “growth.” Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down why value and growth aren’t mutually exclusive, and why the market’s favorite shortcut—“defensives = value, tech = growth”—can lead to costly portfolio...

2-12-26 Dollar Rally Risk - Overbought Markets | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Is the U.S. Dollar setting up for a deeper rally—and what does that mean for markets that have been riding the “weak dollar” trade? Lance Roberts walks through a long-term, monthly chart perspective: when major indexes stretch 2+ standard deviations above long-term means, the odds of a meaningful mean reversion rise. Right now, the S&P 500 is extended, the equal-weight S&P is even more stretched, and several “Dollar-sensitive” areas look extremely overbought—including Basic Materials, Industrials, and Transports. The same setup shows up in international stocks and emerging...

2-11-26 Q&A Wednesday: You Ask 'em, We'll Answer

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It’s Q&A Wednesday: You ask ’em, we’ll answer—and today’s episode covers the questions investors actually wrestle with when markets get noisy. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff start with a preview of upcoming economic reports and what recent data may be signaling about slowing growth and the next bout of market volatility. From there, we dig into real portfolio decisions—especially for investors heading into retirement—including how to think about allocation changes, managing risk, and avoiding the behavioral traps that derail long-term outcomes. Lance & Danny also hit...

2-11-26 Market Rotation Keeps Stocks Flat | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets are stuck in the same rhythm: rally, pull back, test support, and bounce again. After Tuesday’s dip, futures are mildly higher this morning—but the bigger story is consolidation. Under the surface, leadership is rotating: Energy, Financials, and Value have held the upper hand, while Growth has started to perk up. That internal rotation can keep the index “flat” even as specific sectors trend. The setup still leans toward an upside breakout, but the market hasn’t shown the momentum needed to follow through—yet. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields have been sliding for several...

2-10-26 Duct Tape & WD-40 Your Portfolio Together

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets rallied back into positive territory today, but the real risk-management lesson isn’t the chart—it’s behavior. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack the “WD-40 & Duct Tape” framework: WD-40 reduces emotional friction when headlines and volatility try to lock up decision-making, and duct tape is the discipline that keeps your portfolio plan intact (allocation, diversification, rebalancing rules, time horizon, liquidity). We also hit real-life planning topics investors ignore until it’s urgent—pre-nups, trusts, board liability, and why you shouldn’t scrimp on estate...

2-10-26 Market Signals Melt-up | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets rebounded Monday and nearly tagged new highs—trend remains bullish, but leadership is rotating. After an early-year chase into Value, money is flowing back into Technology and Growth. At the same time, global equity inflows ex-Tech are running hot (over $60B YTD), a classic “melt-up” signal that’s worth monitoring for crowding and speculation. Futures are higher again this morning—watch for follow-through. Bitcoin bounced but hasn’t regained traction yet. It’s still deeply oversold, momentum is flattening, and a tradable setup could emerge if we get confirmation with a...

2-9-26 Technology Stocks: Dead… or the Next Opportunity?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Technology stocks started February on the back foot as volatility spiked and leveraged trades unwound across markets—crypto first, then metals, then equities. The key question: is this a real breakdown in tech leadership, or a mechanical liquidation that’s creating selective opportunity? 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Superbowl Recap & Looking for BLS & CPI 4:41 - More Trapped Longs & Volatility to Come 10:38 - Market Volatility May not Be Over Yet 14:28 - The AI Threat to Software Co's 18:12 - Salesforce vs AI 23:20 - Narratives are Justification for Overpaying 26:30 - Technology Sector...

2-6-26 The Wealth-Health Gap

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Why do wealthier households tend to live longer and experience fewer chronic diseases? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down the Wealth-Health Gap—how income, savings, and environment shape health through housing quality, access to care, and financial resilience. We also flip the lens: poor health can reduce earnings, drain savings, and create a vicious cycle that widens disparities across generations. Finally, we discuss systemic factors that amplify the gap and practical policy ideas aimed at improving both economic stability and health outcomes. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Uncle Floyd...

2-5-26 Truflation vs CPI: What Inflation Is Really Doing Today

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Is inflation actually cooling—or just being measured differently? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Truflation’s real-time inflation readings (built from millions of point-of-purchase prices across multiple providers) versus the official CPI/PCE framework, which relies far more on surveys and sampling. We’ll also address the big caveat: neither CPI/PCE nor Truflation perfectly captures what you feel “in the shops,” because inflation varies by geography, income group, and what you actually buy. The aggregate number can hide the lived experience. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 -...

2-5-26 Markets Set Up for Rotation Trades | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets sold off again Wednesday, closing right on the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (50-DMA). While the index is still riding its underlying support line and working off an overbought condition, the momentum trade has largely been wrung out. Despite the turbulence, the broader uptrend remains intact—just with a lot more internal rotation. Wednesday’s damage was concentrated in mega-cap momentum and “growth leadership,” while much of the rest of the market held up better. That matters because Value vs. Growth has become increasingly overextended over the last several...

More Episodes

CPI will have an impact on the markets, as it feeds into the answer to the question, 'Will or won't the Fed cut rates this month?' Markets on Tuesday rallied right up to the 50-DMA; futures are subdued this morning, suggesting an initial test of resistance right at the 50-DMA. If that fails, there will be more pressure to the downside. Volatility is the big driver of the markets; there has been a little pickup in volatility during this most recent correction, but not to a great degree; the VIX is currently trading at around 19. The real challenge is positioning ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iArd3ktAw90&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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