9-11-24 CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 09/11/2024
2-19-26 Dalio at Davos: Calm Markets, Hidden Currents
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Ray Dalio’s Davos comments aren’t a “next-week collapse” call—they’re a long-cycle warning: rising debt supply can eventually force higher yields and tough policy trade-offs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but sector/factor dispersion and low correlations show a fierce rotation under the hood. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the calm index ≠ calm market—watch dispersion and correlations for the next regime shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent...
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2-19-26 Dow Streak Signals Pullback | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pushed higher Wednesday morning and ran straight into a key technical “traffic jam” as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converged near the same level. Late-day selling pulled prices back toward the 50-DMA, and with futures slightly lower this morning, the big question is whether buyers step back in—or whether we start to see a more routine digestion of gains. The bigger tell right now may be the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow has notched nine consecutive months of gains, a streak that’s historically rare over long market history. When runs like this extend, it...
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2-18-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money, and Your Questions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It’s Q&A Wednesday—your questions drive the show. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down what’s moving markets right now, key economic and Fed signals to watch this week, and the practical portfolio decisions that matter most (risk, allocations, income, taxes, and retirement timing). Drop your question in the live chatroom and we’ll tackle as many as we can. Topics we often cover: market volatility & trend levels, rates/inflation, sector rotation, retirement income, tax strategy, ETFs vs. individual bonds, and avoiding emotional decision-making. Hosted by RIA...
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2-18-26 100-DMA Bounce: Range-Bound Markets & Energy Risk | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets tested the 100-day moving average (100-DMA) and buyers stepped in—exactly where many systematic and algorithmic strategies tend to respond. Futures are pointing higher this morning, but that doesn’t automatically mean the selloff is finished. Momentum remains weak and the market is still on a sell signal, which often sets up a choppy, range-bound environment without a clear catalyst. We also discuss why “chasing winners” can get dangerous late in an extended run—highlighted by Walmart’s sharp drop after a strong advance. In commodities, crude oil is trying to stabilize, but...
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2-17-26 Bank, Brokerage, or Corporate Trustee? (It's a Matter of Trust)
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Choosing a corporate trustee is one of the most important decisions in estate planning—especially if you’re naming a bank, brokerage trust department, or independent trust company to manage assets and carry out your wishes after you’re gone. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down how to compare corporate trustees beyond just “lowest fees,” including fiduciary standards, investment flexibility, service model, administrative capabilities, distribution discipline, technology/reporting, continuity, and how they handle family dynamics. We also cover the key differences between revocable...
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2-17-26 100-DMA Test - Momentum Fades, Rotation Shifts | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets held the 100-DMA on Friday, but that support is in focus again today. The bigger issue is a negative divergence: price has risen while momentum and relative strength have faded. If the 100-DMA breaks, the next key level is the 200-DMA near 6,650—so stay disciplined on allocations, concentration, and risk. Breadth is improving: the gap between market-cap and equal-weight has narrowed, and equal-weight has led over the past six months. Energy, Utilities, Industrials, and Materials have been driving gains, but several are getting extended—take profits and rebalance where needed. Also...
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2-16-26 Margin Debt & the One-Stock Myth
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Happy Presidents Day—today’s show blends portfolio risk management with real-life planning (and a little chili controversy). We break down margin debt and how leverage turns routine volatility into forced selling and permanent losses. Then we pivot to weddings, pre-nups, and money conversations—what couples should sort out early to protect goals and reduce future stress. Next, we tackle the “one stock forever” question: why the idea is tempting, where concentration risk shows up, and what characteristics investors are really looking for (durable cash flows, pricing power, strong...
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2-13-26 529 Leftovers, Retirement First, & the Real Cost of Cars
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What happens when the “perfect” financial plan doesn’t happen—your kid skips college, your retirement clock is ticking, and the family budget gets ambushed by costs you never saw coming? Jon Penn and Jonathan McCarty connect three real-world money stress points that are showing up everywhere right now: 1) The kid isn’t going to college—now what about that 529? 2) Retirement vs. college: the household tug-of-war 3) Hidden car ownership costs: the budget killer after the dealership 0:00 - INTRO 0:21 - Market Futures & Precious Metals 2:33 - Rising Costs of automobiles &...
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2-12-26 The Value Rotation Illusion
The Real Investment Show Podcast
“Value is back,” the headlines say—so investors rush from mega-cap growth into “boring” staples, utilities, and healthcare. But here’s the problem: sector labels aren’t valuation metrics. In many cases, the so-called “value rotation” is an illusion—because investors may be rotating into expensive stocks while selling the actual value hiding inside “growth.” Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down why value and growth aren’t mutually exclusive, and why the market’s favorite shortcut—“defensives = value, tech = growth”—can lead to costly portfolio...
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2-12-26 Dollar Rally Risk - Overbought Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the U.S. Dollar setting up for a deeper rally—and what does that mean for markets that have been riding the “weak dollar” trade? Lance Roberts walks through a long-term, monthly chart perspective: when major indexes stretch 2+ standard deviations above long-term means, the odds of a meaningful mean reversion rise. Right now, the S&P 500 is extended, the equal-weight S&P is even more stretched, and several “Dollar-sensitive” areas look extremely overbought—including Basic Materials, Industrials, and Transports. The same setup shows up in international stocks and emerging...
info_outlineCPI will have an impact on the markets, as it feeds into the answer to the question, 'Will or won't the Fed cut rates this month?' Markets on Tuesday rallied right up to the 50-DMA; futures are subdued this morning, suggesting an initial test of resistance right at the 50-DMA. If that fails, there will be more pressure to the downside. Volatility is the big driver of the markets; there has been a little pickup in volatility during this most recent correction, but not to a great degree; the VIX is currently trading at around 19. The real challenge is positioning ahead of the Fed's rate decision.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iArd3ktAw90&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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