5-11-26 Commodity Supercycle - Bull Market Killer?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 05/11/2026
5-11-26 Commodity Supercycle - Bull Market Killer?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the commodity supercycle the next great investment opportunity, or the biggest threat to the current bull market? Lance Roberts breaks down the growing Wall Street narrative that commodities are entering a multi-year boom driven by deglobalization, underinvestment in energy and metals, AI infrastructure demand, and concerns over long-term dollar dominance. But there’s a major problem with the thesis: commodity spikes are inflationary, inflation destroys demand, and higher commodity prices often strengthen the U.S. dollar instead of weakening it. We examine the reflexivity problem,...
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5-11-26 Iran Headlines Rattle Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are reacting to renewed Iran tensions as oil prices rise and stock futures weaken. Energy stocks are leading while the Mag-7 trades lower, but the bigger concern may be how stretched markets have become after weeks of relentless gains. This “Bull Stampede” rally has pushed sentiment back to extreme bullishness, volatility remains very low, and markets are now heavily extended above long-term trends. History suggests these setups often lead to fast reversions, with 3% to 5% pullbacks arriving quickly once a catalyst appears. Will it come from Iran, inflation data, or the Trump-Xi...
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5-8-26 Annuities: Smart Move or Costly Mistake?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Are annuities only for retirees, or can they play a role in building long-term financial security at any age? Richard Rosso & Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty break down the myths, costs, benefits, and risks of annuities, and how guaranteed income fits into a retirement strategy. We discuss how annuities can serve as bond substitutes, why fees vary so widely, how sales structures impact costs, and how to determine whether an annuity fits your personal retirement goals. Most importantly, we explore how to create a rules-based approach to guaranteed income that matches your lifestyle, risk...
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5-7-26 Semiconductors: Bubble or Bust?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Key topics include:...
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5-7-26 How Markets Ignore the Fear | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
For four years, investors have been told the next crash was right around the corner. Russia-Ukraine, inflation at 9%, Fed rate hikes, Silicon Valley Bank, tariffs, AI fears, Iran tensions, and endless recession warnings all fueled bearish headlines. Yet despite every crisis narrative, the market has doubled from the October 2022 lows. This morning, we break down why markets continue to climb in the face of nonstop fear narratives, and what actually matters for long-term market direction: earnings growth and forward expectations. We also review the technical backdrop, including the MACD...
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5-6-26 Q&A Wednesday - What's Your Biggest Concern?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It’s Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff are taking your questions live from the YouTube chatroom. From markets at all-time highs and rising pullback risk, to Fed policy, rates, and portfolio positioning, we’re breaking down what matters most right now. With stocks extended, volume thinning out, and momentum showing signs of fatigue, is this a healthy pause or the start of a correction? What should investors and traders be doing right here? Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 0:57 - Markets Rally, Oil Plunges 4:05 - AI Trade is Back - but watch for reversal 7:52 -...
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5-6-26 AI Rally Nears Exhaustion | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue pushing to new all-time highs as AI stocks lead the rally higher, but momentum and money flow signals are beginning to weaken beneath the surface. While the bullish trend remains intact, overbought conditions are building and a near-term pullback or consolidation would not be surprising. Lance Roberts reviews why slowing money flows matter, what history says about momentum-driven rallies, and why patience, profit-taking, and risk management still matter even in strong markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...
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5-5-26 Investing vs Trading - Finding the Balance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Investing and trading are often treated as opposing strategies, but the real advantage comes from knowing how to use both effectively. Long-term investing builds wealth through discipline and compounding, while trading can create short-term opportunities to enhance returns or manage risk. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down the key differences between investing and trading, when each approach makes sense, and how to structure a portfolio that incorporates both without letting emotion or overactivity take control. We discuss time horizons, risk management, position sizing, and how to avoid...
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5-5-26 Cooling-Off Correction Ahead? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets remain extended, and while a major decline is unlikely, a short-term correction would be normal. With volume thinning at current levels and momentum nearing a sell signal, the risk is for a pullback into the 6,800–6,900 range, where stronger support and prior trading activity exist. We are using this environment to take profits, rebalance portfolios, and add some defensive exposure. The objective is to manage risk now and maintain flexibility, so we have capital ready to deploy when a better opportunity presents itself. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO...
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5-4-26 Summer Sell-Off Risk Rising
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have pushed higher, but underlying risks are beginning to build as we head into the summer months. From stretched valuations and overbought technical conditions to seasonal weakness and shifting liquidity, investors may be facing a more challenging environment than recent gains suggest. Lance Roberts breaks down the key signals pointing to a potential summer sell-off, including market breadth, momentum, and the impact of earnings season winding down. We also discuss how buybacks, economic data, and Federal Reserve policy could influence the next move in stocks, and whether any pullback...
info_outlineIs the commodity supercycle the next great investment opportunity, or the biggest threat to the current bull market?
Lance Roberts breaks down the growing Wall Street narrative that commodities are entering a multi-year boom driven by deglobalization, underinvestment in energy and metals, AI infrastructure demand, and concerns over long-term dollar dominance.
But there’s a major problem with the thesis: commodity spikes are inflationary, inflation destroys demand, and higher commodity prices often strengthen the U.S. dollar instead of weakening it. We examine the reflexivity problem, the China demand issue, AI’s real impact on commodity consumption, and why the “dollar collapse” narrative may be overstated.
Key topics include:
0:00 - INTRO
0:50 - Trump - Xi Preview; Earnings Season Winds Down
4:36 - Economic Data Review
6:53 - The Contrarian Trade Continues
11:41 - The Bull Stampede
12:28 - The Commodity Super Cycle
15:16 - Supply/Demand is most important piece of economic equation
16:50 - The Commodity Reflexivity Loop
18:39 - Commodities are Notorious for Reversal
22:36 - The AI Boom Factor
24:15 - Earnings Recap - Stellar Results
30:46 - What's Driving Market Upside - AI Cap-Ex
36:39 - Prior Peaks in Longterm EPS Growth Estimates...and downturns
40:12 - ISM Mfg. vs S&P 500 Annual % Change (chart)
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO,
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:
"Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis (Part 1)"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/commodity-supercycle-the-enemy-of-the-bull-thesis-part-1/
"Earnings Estimate Revisions Are Very Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-estimate-revisions-are-very-optimistic/
"Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Is Pricing In 2028 Already"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/parabolic-semiconductor-rally-is-pricing-in-2028-already/
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Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Iran Headlines Rattle Markets" here:
https://youtu.be/RU_xjKIGiDs
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Watch our previous show, "Annuities: Smart Move or Costly Mistake?"
https://youtube.com/live/bIrBY3SVfbQ
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