11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 11/21/2024
5-14-26 Momentum Mania Meets Market Rotation | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets remain heavily concentrated in high-beta Momentum trades, especially in Semiconductors and large-cap Growth stocks. But when speculative momentum runs go parabolic, history shows the reversals can be just as sharp. In today’s pre-market update, we break down the difference between market sectors and investment factors, why the Momentum trade has gone vertical since April, and how rotations into Value, Quality, and Fixed Income could begin as investors reduce risk. We’ll also examine why high-beta names could face the biggest downside during a correction, what a retracement in...
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5-13-26 Q & A Wednesday: Real Answers. No Spin.
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Q&A Wednesday is back. Markets are pushing record highs while oil prices surge on renewed Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions, inflation concerns remain elevated, and the AI trade continues to dominate Wall Street headlines. Investors are also watching the Fed, tariffs, interest rates, retirement risks, taxes, and portfolio positioning as volatility quietly builds beneath the surface. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions, live, with straightforward analysis and no spin. Bring your questions about markets, retirement planning, portfolio management, taxes, risk,...
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5-13-26 Buying Stampede: Good News & Bad News | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are now approaching seven straight weeks of gains in one of the strongest buying stampedes since 1950. While bullish momentum, earnings growth, and corporate buybacks continue to support higher prices, markets are becoming increasingly stretched above long-term moving averages. We discuss why sharp advances like this often lead to short-term pullbacks, where key support levels may emerge, and why those corrections can create stronger opportunities for investors later in the year. Is this the start of a larger correction, or just a healthy pause before the next move higher? Watch...
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5-12-26 Five Questions for Smarter Money Decisions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Should you pay off debt, invest more in your 401(k), or do both? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn walk through five real-world financial decisions that millions of Americans face every year. Using new Vanguard research and simple math, we break down how to prioritize credit cards, mortgages, student loans, retirement savings, and employer matches to maximize long-term wealth. We also discuss why the mathematically correct answer is not always the emotionally correct one, and how personal priorities, risk tolerance, and peace of mind factor into financial planning. Key topics include: 0:00 -...
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5-12-26 Tech Rally Risk Is Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Technology stocks continue to dominate the market as XLK and momentum-driven trades surge higher, but the rally is becoming increasingly narrow. Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, Energy, and Materials are lagging badly while Technology pulls the broader indexes higher. In today's pre-market update, we examine the growing divergence between Technology and the rest of the market, why overbought momentum conditions matter, and how concentrated rallies can create hidden risks for investors. We also discuss sector rotation, portfolio diversification, and why maintaining exposure to lagging...
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5-11-26 Commodity Supercycle - Bull Market Killer?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the commodity supercycle the next great investment opportunity, or the biggest threat to the current bull market? Lance Roberts breaks down the growing Wall Street narrative that commodities are entering a multi-year boom driven by deglobalization, underinvestment in energy and metals, AI infrastructure demand, and concerns over long-term dollar dominance. But there’s a major problem with the thesis: commodity spikes are inflationary, inflation destroys demand, and higher commodity prices often strengthen the U.S. dollar instead of weakening it. We examine the reflexivity problem,...
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5-11-26 Iran Headlines Rattle Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are reacting to renewed Iran tensions as oil prices rise and stock futures weaken. Energy stocks are leading while the Mag-7 trades lower, but the bigger concern may be how stretched markets have become after weeks of relentless gains. This “Bull Stampede” rally has pushed sentiment back to extreme bullishness, volatility remains very low, and markets are now heavily extended above long-term trends. History suggests these setups often lead to fast reversions, with 3% to 5% pullbacks arriving quickly once a catalyst appears. Will it come from Iran, inflation data, or the Trump-Xi...
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5-8-26 Annuities: Smart Move or Costly Mistake?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Are annuities only for retirees, or can they play a role in building long-term financial security at any age? Richard Rosso & Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty break down the myths, costs, benefits, and risks of annuities, and how guaranteed income fits into a retirement strategy. We discuss how annuities can serve as bond substitutes, why fees vary so widely, how sales structures impact costs, and how to determine whether an annuity fits your personal retirement goals. Most importantly, we explore how to create a rules-based approach to guaranteed income that matches your lifestyle, risk...
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5-7-26 Semiconductors: Bubble or Bust?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Key topics include:...
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5-7-26 How Markets Ignore the Fear | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
For four years, investors have been told the next crash was right around the corner. Russia-Ukraine, inflation at 9%, Fed rate hikes, Silicon Valley Bank, tariffs, AI fears, Iran tensions, and endless recession warnings all fueled bearish headlines. Yet despite every crisis narrative, the market has doubled from the October 2022 lows. This morning, we break down why markets continue to climb in the face of nonstop fear narratives, and what actually matters for long-term market direction: earnings growth and forward expectations. We also review the technical backdrop, including the MACD...
info_outlineA preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market share to an competitor willing to work for a piece of that pie? A discussion of the anticipated Trump Tariffs, and their impact on corporate profitability; what potential offsets will exist? What choices will consumers make (potentially refusing to buy), and what is the real impact on inflation in the aggregate: The seen and unseen effects and potential retaliatory tariffs. NOTE: Hoover's tariffs are suspect in making the 1930's Depression worse. Why the US' poorest state, Mississippi, has a higher GDP than the country of France: The cost of government intervention. MicroStrategy, BitCoin, and stupid investor investments.
SEG-1: Looking at the Risk-on Horizon
SEG-2: Why Nvidia is Still "Cheap"
SEG-3: Will Trump Tariffs Really Be Inflationary?
SEG-4: Stupid Investor Investments
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE5okKP_9hM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Trump Tariffs Are Inflationary Claim The Experts"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-tariffs-are-inflationary-claim-the-experts/
"Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yardeni-and-the-long-history-of-prediction-problems/
"Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1rOq_VH06M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4bUAbsijBk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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