11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 11/21/2024
5-12-26 Five Questions for Smarter Money Decisions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Should you pay off debt, invest more in your 401(k), or do both? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn walk through five real-world financial decisions that millions of Americans face every year. Using new Vanguard research and simple math, we break down how to prioritize credit cards, mortgages, student loans, retirement savings, and employer matches to maximize long-term wealth. We also discuss why the mathematically correct answer is not always the emotionally correct one, and how personal priorities, risk tolerance, and peace of mind factor into financial planning. Key topics include: 0:00 -...
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5-12-26 Tech Rally Risk Is Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Technology stocks continue to dominate the market as XLK and momentum-driven trades surge higher, but the rally is becoming increasingly narrow. Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, Energy, and Materials are lagging badly while Technology pulls the broader indexes higher. In today's pre-market update, we examine the growing divergence between Technology and the rest of the market, why overbought momentum conditions matter, and how concentrated rallies can create hidden risks for investors. We also discuss sector rotation, portfolio diversification, and why maintaining exposure to lagging...
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5-11-26 Commodity Supercycle - Bull Market Killer?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the commodity supercycle the next great investment opportunity, or the biggest threat to the current bull market? Lance Roberts breaks down the growing Wall Street narrative that commodities are entering a multi-year boom driven by deglobalization, underinvestment in energy and metals, AI infrastructure demand, and concerns over long-term dollar dominance. But there’s a major problem with the thesis: commodity spikes are inflationary, inflation destroys demand, and higher commodity prices often strengthen the U.S. dollar instead of weakening it. We examine the reflexivity problem,...
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5-11-26 Iran Headlines Rattle Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are reacting to renewed Iran tensions as oil prices rise and stock futures weaken. Energy stocks are leading while the Mag-7 trades lower, but the bigger concern may be how stretched markets have become after weeks of relentless gains. This “Bull Stampede” rally has pushed sentiment back to extreme bullishness, volatility remains very low, and markets are now heavily extended above long-term trends. History suggests these setups often lead to fast reversions, with 3% to 5% pullbacks arriving quickly once a catalyst appears. Will it come from Iran, inflation data, or the Trump-Xi...
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5-8-26 Annuities: Smart Move or Costly Mistake?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Are annuities only for retirees, or can they play a role in building long-term financial security at any age? Richard Rosso & Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty break down the myths, costs, benefits, and risks of annuities, and how guaranteed income fits into a retirement strategy. We discuss how annuities can serve as bond substitutes, why fees vary so widely, how sales structures impact costs, and how to determine whether an annuity fits your personal retirement goals. Most importantly, we explore how to create a rules-based approach to guaranteed income that matches your lifestyle, risk...
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5-7-26 Semiconductors: Bubble or Bust?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Key topics include:...
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5-7-26 How Markets Ignore the Fear | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
For four years, investors have been told the next crash was right around the corner. Russia-Ukraine, inflation at 9%, Fed rate hikes, Silicon Valley Bank, tariffs, AI fears, Iran tensions, and endless recession warnings all fueled bearish headlines. Yet despite every crisis narrative, the market has doubled from the October 2022 lows. This morning, we break down why markets continue to climb in the face of nonstop fear narratives, and what actually matters for long-term market direction: earnings growth and forward expectations. We also review the technical backdrop, including the MACD...
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5-6-26 Q&A Wednesday - What's Your Biggest Concern?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It’s Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff are taking your questions live from the YouTube chatroom. From markets at all-time highs and rising pullback risk, to Fed policy, rates, and portfolio positioning, we’re breaking down what matters most right now. With stocks extended, volume thinning out, and momentum showing signs of fatigue, is this a healthy pause or the start of a correction? What should investors and traders be doing right here? Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 0:57 - Markets Rally, Oil Plunges 4:05 - AI Trade is Back - but watch for reversal 7:52 -...
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5-6-26 AI Rally Nears Exhaustion | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue pushing to new all-time highs as AI stocks lead the rally higher, but momentum and money flow signals are beginning to weaken beneath the surface. While the bullish trend remains intact, overbought conditions are building and a near-term pullback or consolidation would not be surprising. Lance Roberts reviews why slowing money flows matter, what history says about momentum-driven rallies, and why patience, profit-taking, and risk management still matter even in strong markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...
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5-5-26 Investing vs Trading - Finding the Balance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Investing and trading are often treated as opposing strategies, but the real advantage comes from knowing how to use both effectively. Long-term investing builds wealth through discipline and compounding, while trading can create short-term opportunities to enhance returns or manage risk. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down the key differences between investing and trading, when each approach makes sense, and how to structure a portfolio that incorporates both without letting emotion or overactivity take control. We discuss time horizons, risk management, position sizing, and how to avoid...
info_outlineA preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market share to an competitor willing to work for a piece of that pie? A discussion of the anticipated Trump Tariffs, and their impact on corporate profitability; what potential offsets will exist? What choices will consumers make (potentially refusing to buy), and what is the real impact on inflation in the aggregate: The seen and unseen effects and potential retaliatory tariffs. NOTE: Hoover's tariffs are suspect in making the 1930's Depression worse. Why the US' poorest state, Mississippi, has a higher GDP than the country of France: The cost of government intervention. MicroStrategy, BitCoin, and stupid investor investments.
SEG-1: Looking at the Risk-on Horizon
SEG-2: Why Nvidia is Still "Cheap"
SEG-3: Will Trump Tariffs Really Be Inflationary?
SEG-4: Stupid Investor Investments
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE5okKP_9hM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Trump Tariffs Are Inflationary Claim The Experts"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-tariffs-are-inflationary-claim-the-experts/
"Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yardeni-and-the-long-history-of-prediction-problems/
"Trump Trade” Sends Investors Into Overdrive"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1rOq_VH06M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4bUAbsijBk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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