A Simple, One-Page Way To Forecast Your Unpredictable Business Revenue
Release Date: 04/14/2025
My Business On Purpose
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info_outlineHey, we'll have a business owner come up to us and go, "I just can't sleep." You know, we’ll say, “Hey, how was your night last night?” “I didn't sleep very well.” “Well, why not?” “Because my head's constantly spinning, constantly thinking about everything that's downstream and I can't seem to get my head around it.”
This is a common refrain that we hear from business owners and we want to give you a tool that I think will be very, very simple for you to start thinking ahead, to forecast downstream, and to relieve some of that pressure.
Now, we're still guessing to some degree because we're dealing with people, and people can change. That dynamic is always there. But the more we can create some means of stability—at least thinking based on the information we have—and that’s a key point, the better. You’ve got to predict, project, and forecast based on the information you have today.
So when we go with that, I think there’s something—we call it a forecasting sheet. You could call it a job start sheet or a project start sheet. If you can start with a simple process, it’s often the thing for business owners. Stay tuned till the end of this and I’m going to give you a tool that I think will be really helpful for you.
I want you to think in terms of a simple process. While there is an abundance of sophisticated software available, we recommend beginning with a basic spreadsheet. If you can do a spreadsheet for three to six months, this allows you to prove to yourself—and your coach, if you're coaching with us or someone else—that you can consistently use and benefit from the tool before you sign up for that subscription. And the subscription isn't bad, by the way—software is excellent and most of it’s really good—but you need to prove to yourself that you can use it first.
The cornerstone of the simple process is that project start sheet, forecasting tool, or job start sheet. It's a straightforward spreadsheet that can be customized based on your specific needs. For example, if you’re a contractor with smaller jobs, you might organize your forecasting sheet by weeks of the year—week one, two, three—or by specific dates: January 2nd, January 9th, and so on. If you have larger projects that take months, then months of projection might be more appropriate. For others, it might be days of the year, depending on your sales cycle.
The project start sheet should list all your upcoming projects in the first column. You might ask, “Well, what if I’m in retail and I’ve got maybe 10 customers every day or a hundred customers every day?” Then, break down your retail business into three, four, or five major sections. So instead of listing individual products or SKUs, you’ve got multiple sections—and then you can start to project those sections based not only on the actual product but also on seasonality, which is really important. That’s where we begin to see the flow not only of product but also of cash.
Across the top of your spreadsheet, imagine having days, weeks, or months of the year—most of you will use weeks or months. Then, in the corresponding cells, input the billing amounts you expect for each project, series of products, or categories. If you're a contractor selling new homes, you might put months of the year across the top, and then, based on your schedule of values, note that you’re billing X this month, X plus 15% next month, and so on—accounting for seasonality.
When filling in those amounts for future projections, it’s important to be very realistic. Don’t live in the clouds—live in realism. It might be tempting to divide a project's total value evenly across the duration (like saying, “Last year we did a million in this area, so we’ll just divide that by 12”), but be very careful. You can miss out on seasonality, which directly impacts your cash flow.
Instead, refer to any schedule of values or historical records you have. A schedule of values is a standard tool in the contracting world that more accurately helps you project when you’ll bill specific amounts for work completed. This practice might take some time initially, but that’s okay. Once you’ve set it up, you’ll have a powerful tool for projecting and budgeting based on your expected revenue.
The project start sheet—whether using days, weeks, or months along the top, and projects or product sections along the side—allows you to track completions. This helps you identify potential lean or full periods in advance.
Another aspect to consider is the possibility of unexpected job delays, stoppages, or seasonality. For instance, right now at the time of this recording, about 40 minutes from here there are wildfires in the foothills. That’s going to impact businesses. There’s a vineyard up there that’s been forced to evacuate, and it will affect them. Even large, seemingly secure projects can suddenly stop due to unforeseen circumstances.
So it’s wise to build in a buffer—say, 10 to 20%—for potential delays in your projections. This might lead to slightly overshooting your estimates, but it provides a more realistic view of possible scenarios.
Effective planning and forecasting are only possible with a reliable tracking system. That’s where the project start sheet—the spreadsheet—becomes incredibly valuable. By continuously using and updating that simple tool, you’ll gain a clearer picture of your business’s economic trajectory and be better equipped to make informed decisions. Bring your team into this as well.
As you become more comfortable with the process, you’ll find it easier to adapt to changes, anticipate challenges, and seize opportunities. Mastering a simple process is the foundational step that can lead to more sophisticated financial management as your business grows. So hold off on the fancy stuff for now—let’s go simplistic.
Hey, if you need some help, I told you I’d have a resource. You can go to businessonpurpose.com/ask—that’s businessonpurpose.com/ask—and you can actually hop on an “Ask Us Anything” call. There are also tools on that site that you don’t even have to download. They’re right there. They’ll give you profit-leak-plugging tools and other resources that will be really helpful. So go to businessonpurpose.com/ask.
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