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Matthew Gardner's Housing Market Talking Points

Ninja Selling Podcast

Release Date: 08/04/2025

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Eric Thompson hosts a very special episode featuring none other than Matthew Gardner, one of North America's leading real estate economists. Together, they dive deep into the real estate market at the halfway point of the year, providing clarity and data-driven insights to help you navigate the current landscape.

Matthew cuts through the noise of media headlines, explaining why today’s market isn't crashing and what key metrics you should really be watching. From the surprising strength of home prices to the truth about inventory levels, this conversation provides the perspective needed to be a proactive, trusted advisor.

Discover the real driver behind mortgage rates (it’s not what you think!), learn about the impact of tariffs on new construction, and get Matthew’s forecast on transaction volume and interest rates for the coming years. This episode is packed with takeaways you can share directly with your clients to position yourself as a true market authority.

Episode Highlights:

  • An Introduction to Leading Real Estate Economist Matthew Gardner

  • A Mid-Year Check-In on the Market’s Vital Signs

  • Why Prices are at an All-Time High and What It Means

  • The Importance of Comparing Today’s Inventory to 2019, Not Last Year

  • Unpacking Why the Market is Not Going to Crash

  • The True Connection Between 30-Year Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury

  • Understanding the “Spread” and Why It’s Wider Than Normal

  • A Look Ahead at Where Interest Rates and Transaction Volume are Headed

  • How Tariffs and Global Economics are Impacting Housing Costs

  • Why New Construction is Now Directly Competing with the Resale Market

  • The Biggest Challenge Facing the Next Generation of First-Time Homebuyers

Key Takeaways:

"For well-priced and well-positioned houses, there is still demand."

"The terminal rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is going to be around that 6 percent level."

"New construction is competing with the resale market."

"My biggest worry out there are our first-time buyers."

"If there was a crash, I would be screaming it from the rooftops, as I was in 2005. But I just don't see it."

"Twenty-seven percent of the things that go into a new-build home are imported from China."

"The median age of a first-time buyer last year was 38. It's supposed to be around 30, 31... Why? Because, again, affordability."

"It's not the amazing market that you saw over the course of coming out of COVID, but there is still a market."

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