The Death of Leasehold & The London Construction Collapse
Release Date: 02/05/2026
The Death of Leasehold & The London Construction Collapse
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says. We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government’s £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London’s Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest."...
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Media is Watching Greenland. I’m Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump’s rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn’t just populism; it’s market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it. Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the...
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the...
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Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. ...
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2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new...
info_outlineIn this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says.
We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government’s £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London’s Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us.
In This Episode:
🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars
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How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument."
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Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern.
📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners
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Chris Watkin’s Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut."
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Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers.
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Scotland’s Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting.
⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution
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The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it.
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The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters).
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Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture.
🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR
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Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers.
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The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register.
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Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing.
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Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London.
🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy
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Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators."
Key Quotes:
"The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets."
"The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread."
Links:
Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/
Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence
Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/