Hotspotting
info_outline Building CollapsesHotspotting
info_outline Approvals V ConstructionHotspotting
Two very different headlines have summed up the problems for Australia’s ongoing housing shortage. One of the recent media headlines declared that building approvals were at a two-year high and that things were improving for the nation’s housing shortage. The other described why building approvals are almost irrelevant – it said that project deferrals are occurring at a record rate. The reality of the current crisis is this: it doesn’t matter how many houses and apartments are approved for construction – and it doesn’t matter how many re-zonings state governments push through...
info_outline Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & ForecastsHotspotting
In this insightful webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, Hotspotting’s General Manager, analyze the surprises and trends of 2024 in the Australian property market and share their projections for 2025. With decades of combined experience, they provide investors with actionable advice on navigating the coming year. Key Highlights 2024 in Review Defying Predictions: Despite high interest rates and inflationary pressures, property prices rose by an average of 5.53% nationally in 2024. Perth led with an astonishing 18.7% growth, followed by regional Western Australia,...
info_outline Best Buys ResultHotspotting
You don’t have to be super rich or invest $1 million to make big capital gains in residential real estate: you just need to follow Hotspotting’s signature report, the National Top 10 Best Buys report. Those who followed the tips in our report of a year ago could have made close to $100,000 in capital gains spending as little as $400,000 – or $180,000 in gains after investing $630,000. In December 2023 we published our National Top Best Buys reports for Summer 2023-34. Our top 10 locations for investors to consider covered a wide range of price points, from less than $300,000 and above $1...
info_outline Listings RiseHotspotting
The greatest complaint heard most often in real estate across Australia is that there are plenty of buyers, but a shortage of listings. The number of properties for sale has been well short of the levels needed for a balanced market, particularly in the boom cities of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. But that is steadily changing. According to SQM Research, total listings of properties for sale nationwide grew 7.6% in November and are now more than 10% higher than a year ago. Perhaps most significantly, there were major rises in November in those three boom cities, with the...
info_outline Media AbsurditiesHotspotting
Things are constantly changing in real estate nationwide but the one factor that never changes is this: we can always rely on news media to distort the facts and deliver a steady flow of misinformation to Australian consumers, all in the interests of attracting readership, with little regard for accuracy, honesty or fairness. The past week or so has been chockful of media nonsense. If you can believe the headlines, the national property boom is over, house prices are plunging, the rental boom is over and the North Queensland city of Townsville is a mining town. One of the constants of my...
info_outline 2025 PredictionsHotspotting
Rumours of the death of ‘the national property boom’ are greatly exaggerated – especially since we didn’t have a national property boom in 2024. Rather, over the past 12 months, we have seen differing market cycles in many locations - as is the usual state of play in real estate throughout Australia. Strong property price growth was recorded in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane in 2024, but not in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Darwin or Hobart. Similarly, in the regional areas, there were declining and stagnating markets, as well as some where prices were showing good price...
info_outline Regional Investment BoomHotspotting
Victoria’s real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as young first-home buyers increasingly seek affordable housing in regional areas. According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), first-home buyer loans in Victoria soared to 4,202 in July – the highest number in nearly two years. This surge reflects growing confidence among young buyers and a trend towards exploring housing options beyond Melbourne. Nationally, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Regional Australia Institute report that the flow of people from cities...
info_outline Units Beat HousesHotspotting
Hotspotting was among the first to identify and highlight the most significant change in the Australian real estate scene – the emerging trend which we document in the quarterly editions of the report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments., published in association with Nuestar. This trend has turned upside down the dominant paradigm in real estate, that houses out-perform apartments on capital growth. There is now growing evidence that attached dwellings are mounting a strong challenge to houses. It has long been believed that land content was the big thing in driving...
info_outlineReal estate consumers tend to place their attention on the markets receiving the most media headlines, which primarily are the ones that have shown the biggest growth in the past month or the latest quarter or year.
But that is not the best measure of which locations have been showing the best growth.
To get a better picture of locations that out-perform, you need to look at longer time frames, such as the past THREE years, not the past week or the past month as media tends to do.
News media continues to obsess over the Perth market where prices currently are rising the fastest and they tend to imply that this boom will keep on rolling for years to come.
It won’t. Perth has already had a couple of years of major price growth and there are already signs that the market has peaked.
One of the things that would be more useful is for the media to take a broader focus of price performance, to give consumers a more enlightened picture of where the best growth has been.
For example, where in Australia have we seen the biggest growth over the past three years?
It would no doubt surprise many to learn that there are a dozen regional centres across Australia which have had considerably higher growth since 2021 than Perth – and most of the other capital cities as well.
Research published by one of Australia’s best real estate analysts, Simon Pressley of Propertyology, shows that the best performers on capital growth over the past three years have been regional cities - and that the best of the capital cities has not been Perth, but Adelaide.
So which location has recorded the highest growth in median house prices in the past three years?
According to Propertyology, the answer is Bundaberg in Regional Queensland, where the median price has risen 63% in three years.
Close behind comes Wagga Wagga in NSW, which has grown 56%.
Then we have little-known Gympie near the Sunshine Coast, up 51%, alongside Hervey Bay a little further north in Queensland, which also increased 51%.
In fifth place we have the first of the capital cities, Adelaide, which is up 50% on the pricing levels of 2021.
Next, in order, we have the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Mandurah in WA, Rockhampton in Queensland, Tamworth in NSW, the Gold Coast in Queensland and Albury-Wodonga at the NSW-Victoria border.
In 12th place, up 40% over three years, is Perth.
Now, I’m happy to report that every one of those out-performing locations across the nation have featured strongly in our hotspots reports over the past 3-4 years.
And we featured them BEFORE that big period of three-year growth started.
In the 2020 editions of our National Top 10 Best Buys report, the Sunshine Coast was our top pick – and went on to be a national leader on price growth over three years.
In the 2021 editions of Best Buys, Bundaberg, Tamworth, Albury-Wodonga, Wagga Wagga and the Gold Coast, as well as key locations in Adelaide and Perth, all featured in our national top 10 lists – BEFORE the three years of growth happened.
And remember that, back in 2020 and early 2021, economists and the media generally were telling us that prices were going to crash everywhere. We simply did NOT agree – and we got it right.
This speaks to the essence of intelligent investing – accessing good research reports that tell you where the highest growth will happen BEFORE it happens.
NOT diving into markets where the media says prices have grown the most in the past year. That is the essence of BAD investing.