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Greens Housing Policies

Hotspotting

Release Date: 08/06/2024

Price Data show art Price Data

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Building Collapses show art Building Collapses

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Approvals V Construction show art Approvals V Construction

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Two very different headlines have summed up the problems for Australia’s ongoing housing shortage. One of the recent media headlines declared that building approvals were at a two-year high and that things were improving for the nation’s housing shortage.  The other described why building approvals are almost irrelevant – it said that project deferrals are occurring at a record rate. The reality of the current crisis is this: it doesn’t matter how many houses and apartments are approved for construction – and it doesn’t matter how many re-zonings state governments push through...

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Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & Forecasts show art Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & Forecasts

Hotspotting

In this insightful webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, Hotspotting’s General Manager, analyze the surprises and trends of 2024 in the Australian property market and share their projections for 2025. With decades of combined experience, they provide investors with actionable advice on navigating the coming year. Key Highlights 2024 in Review Defying Predictions: Despite high interest rates and inflationary pressures, property prices rose by an average of 5.53% nationally in 2024. Perth led with an astonishing 18.7% growth, followed by regional Western Australia,...

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Best Buys Result show art Best Buys Result

Hotspotting

You don’t have to be super rich or invest $1 million to make big capital gains in residential real estate: you just need to follow Hotspotting’s signature report, the National Top 10 Best Buys report. Those who followed the tips in our report of a year ago could have made close to $100,000 in capital gains spending as little as $400,000 – or $180,000 in gains after investing $630,000. In December 2023 we published our National Top Best Buys reports for Summer 2023-34. Our top 10 locations for investors to consider covered a wide range of price points, from less than $300,000 and above $1...

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Listings Rise show art Listings Rise

Hotspotting

The greatest complaint heard most often in real estate across Australia is that there are plenty of buyers, but a shortage of listings.   The number of properties for sale has been well short of the levels needed for a balanced market, particularly in the boom cities of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth.   But that is steadily changing. According to SQM Research, total listings of properties for sale nationwide grew 7.6% in November and are now more than 10% higher than a year ago.   Perhaps most significantly, there were major rises in November in those three boom cities, with the...

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Media Absurdities show art Media Absurdities

Hotspotting

Things are constantly changing in real estate nationwide but the one factor that never changes is this:  we can always rely on news media to distort the facts and deliver a steady flow of misinformation to Australian consumers, all in the interests of attracting readership, with little regard for accuracy, honesty or fairness. The past week or so has been chockful of media nonsense. If you can believe the headlines, the national property boom is over, house prices are plunging, the rental boom is over and the North Queensland city of Townsville is a mining town. One of the constants of my...

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2025 Predictions show art 2025 Predictions

Hotspotting

Rumours of the death of ‘the national property boom’ are greatly exaggerated – especially since we didn’t have a national property boom in 2024. Rather, over the past 12 months, we have seen differing market cycles in many locations - as is the usual state of play in real estate throughout Australia. Strong property price growth was recorded in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane in 2024, but not in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Darwin or Hobart.    Similarly, in the regional areas, there were declining and stagnating markets, as well as some where prices were showing good price...

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Regional Investment Boom show art Regional Investment Boom

Hotspotting

Victoria’s real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as young first-home buyers increasingly seek affordable housing in regional areas.   According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), first-home buyer loans in Victoria soared to 4,202 in July – the highest number in nearly two years.    This surge reflects growing confidence among young buyers and a trend towards exploring housing options beyond Melbourne.   Nationally, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Regional Australia Institute report that the flow of people from cities...

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Units Beat Houses show art Units Beat Houses

Hotspotting

Hotspotting was among the first to identify and highlight the most significant change in the Australian real estate scene – the emerging trend which we document in the quarterly editions of the report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments., published in association with Nuestar.   This trend has turned upside down the dominant paradigm in real estate, that houses out-perform apartments on capital growth. There is now growing evidence that attached dwellings are mounting a strong challenge to houses.   It has long been believed that land content was the big thing in driving...

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The official data shows that the cornerstone of the financial wellbeing of most Australian households is the family home.

Over two-thirds of the household wealth in this country is residential property and, for most of them, this means their home - as most people don’t own investment properties.

The family home is the foundation of the financial security of most people and its value underpins people’s lives and their sense of security - and, in particular, their retirement.

The good news is that household wealth nationally grew 10% in the past year and 68% of that wealth resides in the residence.

The bad news is that if the Greens have their way, all of that will be decimated.

Their policy for real estate is to force the value of your home to fall - a lot.

And if you’re performing one of society’s most important functions, providing a home for others to live in as tenants, the Greens want you to be rubbed out. Not just curtailed, but eliminated.

Now, we’ve known for some time that the Greens are anti real estate and, in particular, hostile towards anyone who owns an investment property, even though these are the people who provide 91% of the homes that tenants occupy in Australia - and they’re in extreme short supply.

If the Greens have their way, ownership of investment properties will cease to exist in Australia - although, at the same time, they have no policy about who will provide the 3.2 million rental homes that investors currently provide.

But it gets worse, because the Greens plan is to force down the value of everyone’s home.

They apparently believe that this is how you deal with the issue of housing affordability.

One thing that is abundantly clear is, rather tragically, that no one in the Greens has any understanding of Australian property markets. They have no comprehension of how the cost of housing became so high, no clue as to how rental properties became so scarce, no understanding of why prices rise and no sensitivity to how important the value of the family home is in the life of the nation.

Because everything they propose to do, if they ever gained power, would make all of these issues infinitely worse and would decimate the structure of one of society’s most fundamental needs, shelter.

Observing the Greens espouse economic and real estate policy is like watching primary school kids talk about stuff they think is cool. Imagine if you could have anything you wanted and it doesn’t matter how much it costs and whether it’s really possible or not.

The Greens apparently don’t consider it necessary to cost their policies or to consider the consequences of their pixie-eyed plans.

Just one example: in the election campaign of local government in Queensland earlier this year, a key policy plank was fast rail connecting Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Toowoomba and the Sunshine Coast. There were no costings and no funding proposals for a plan, if you can call it that, which would cost many tens of billions of dollars. 

They also said they would build hundreds of affordable homes on the site for the Eagle Farm race course In Brisbane and it would all cost no more than $40 million, glossing nonchalantly over the fact that the race course land has an owner not keen to cease operations, and that land alone is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, never mind the cost of construction of hundreds of homes.

But returning to their policy of smashing the value of family homes.

Imagine if you’re a young couple who saved a 10% deposit and bought a first home for $600,000 and you have a mortgage of around $550,000. If the Greens had their way, your new home would be worth less than the size of your mortgage. You would be in a position of negative equity and you would be in an extremely vulnerable position. Your bank would be highly concerned and everything you have worked, saved and sacrificed for would be at risk.

Now multiply that by millions of other households and you have a financial, economic and personal disaster of galactic proportions.

And that’s apparently what the Greens want for Australia.

Two-thirds of Australian families own their homes and most would be alarmed at the scenario that the Greens think is fair, reasonable and desirable.

But even more fanciful than the Greens’ objective of destroying the value of our homes is the means by which they say they’ll achieve it.

Their stated plan is to scrap negative gearing and increase capital gains tax.

This apparently, miraculously, will cause the collapse of property values in Australia.

The Greens believe that the owners of investment properties in Australia are a criminal class and the source of all evil in the housing market.

Smashing investors will fix everything, apparently, including housing affordability, the rental shortage and the ongoing increase in rents.

No one cares what happens to investors, in the Greens’ mindset, because they’re all rich bastards who own 15 or 20 properties and earn millions of dollars a year - right?

Well, no. Here’s the reality. The typical investor is a young Australian who earns less than $100,000 a year and owns just one property or is buying their first.

They’re not wealthy, they’re not inherently evil and because they cannot afford to spend big, they’re buying at the lower end of the market and are limited in how much they can spend on a property.

They comprise perhaps 30% of buyers in the market. The other 70% are home buyers and the largest and wealthiest cohort in the market are home buyers other than first-home buyers.

They own their existing home, they have equity, they’re older with higher incomes, they can borrow more than first-home buyers and typical investors, and they’re aspirational. They’re the ones most likely to be pushing up dwelling values.

Investors are limited in their borrowing capacity and seriously disadvantaged in the market, because they have to pay higher interest rates, higher stamp duty, higher insurance, higher council rates - plus they have to pay taxes that home buyers don’t have to pay, like land tax and capital gains tax.

The Greens say they are privileged and advantaged – but clearly the opposite is true.

Australia scrapped negative gearing in the 1980s and it didn’t stop prices from rising. But it did create a rental shortage, so a couple of years later the then Labor Government reinstated negative gearing. 

New Zealand scrapped negative gearing in 2021 and dwelling prices kept rising. It was only later, when interest rates went extremely high, much higher than Australia, that NZ prices stopped rising.

But it did make rental properties scarce so New Zealand is now in the process of bringing back negative gearing.

But do the Greens care about any of that? The answer is that the Greens don’t know any of that because they don’t bother themselves with annoying things like knowledge or research.

They’re the spoiled brats of Australian politics and, if they have their way, you’re going to lose a big chunk of your wealth.

Be afraid, be very afraid.