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Canstar: The Dream Is Alive

Hotspotting

Release Date: 09/13/2024

Approvals V Construction show art Approvals V Construction

Hotspotting

Two very different headlines have summed up the problems for Australia’s ongoing housing shortage. One of the recent media headlines declared that building approvals were at a two-year high and that things were improving for the nation’s housing shortage.  The other described why building approvals are almost irrelevant – it said that project deferrals are occurring at a record rate. The reality of the current crisis is this: it doesn’t matter how many houses and apartments are approved for construction – and it doesn’t matter how many re-zonings state governments push through...

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Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & Forecasts show art Webinar Replay: Reflections & Projections - A Deep Dive into Real Estate Trends & Forecasts

Hotspotting

In this insightful webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, Hotspotting’s General Manager, analyze the surprises and trends of 2024 in the Australian property market and share their projections for 2025. With decades of combined experience, they provide investors with actionable advice on navigating the coming year. Key Highlights 2024 in Review Defying Predictions: Despite high interest rates and inflationary pressures, property prices rose by an average of 5.53% nationally in 2024. Perth led with an astonishing 18.7% growth, followed by regional Western Australia,...

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Best Buys Result show art Best Buys Result

Hotspotting

You don’t have to be super rich or invest $1 million to make big capital gains in residential real estate: you just need to follow Hotspotting’s signature report, the National Top 10 Best Buys report. Those who followed the tips in our report of a year ago could have made close to $100,000 in capital gains spending as little as $400,000 – or $180,000 in gains after investing $630,000. In December 2023 we published our National Top Best Buys reports for Summer 2023-34. Our top 10 locations for investors to consider covered a wide range of price points, from less than $300,000 and above $1...

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Listings Rise show art Listings Rise

Hotspotting

The greatest complaint heard most often in real estate across Australia is that there are plenty of buyers, but a shortage of listings.   The number of properties for sale has been well short of the levels needed for a balanced market, particularly in the boom cities of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth.   But that is steadily changing. According to SQM Research, total listings of properties for sale nationwide grew 7.6% in November and are now more than 10% higher than a year ago.   Perhaps most significantly, there were major rises in November in those three boom cities, with the...

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Media Absurdities show art Media Absurdities

Hotspotting

Things are constantly changing in real estate nationwide but the one factor that never changes is this:  we can always rely on news media to distort the facts and deliver a steady flow of misinformation to Australian consumers, all in the interests of attracting readership, with little regard for accuracy, honesty or fairness. The past week or so has been chockful of media nonsense. If you can believe the headlines, the national property boom is over, house prices are plunging, the rental boom is over and the North Queensland city of Townsville is a mining town. One of the constants of my...

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2025 Predictions show art 2025 Predictions

Hotspotting

Rumours of the death of ‘the national property boom’ are greatly exaggerated – especially since we didn’t have a national property boom in 2024. Rather, over the past 12 months, we have seen differing market cycles in many locations - as is the usual state of play in real estate throughout Australia. Strong property price growth was recorded in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane in 2024, but not in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Darwin or Hobart.    Similarly, in the regional areas, there were declining and stagnating markets, as well as some where prices were showing good price...

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Regional Investment Boom show art Regional Investment Boom

Hotspotting

Victoria’s real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as young first-home buyers increasingly seek affordable housing in regional areas.   According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), first-home buyer loans in Victoria soared to 4,202 in July – the highest number in nearly two years.    This surge reflects growing confidence among young buyers and a trend towards exploring housing options beyond Melbourne.   Nationally, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Regional Australia Institute report that the flow of people from cities...

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Units Beat Houses show art Units Beat Houses

Hotspotting

Hotspotting was among the first to identify and highlight the most significant change in the Australian real estate scene – the emerging trend which we document in the quarterly editions of the report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments., published in association with Nuestar.   This trend has turned upside down the dominant paradigm in real estate, that houses out-perform apartments on capital growth. There is now growing evidence that attached dwellings are mounting a strong challenge to houses.   It has long been believed that land content was the big thing in driving...

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Why a Buyer’s Agent Is a Game-Changer for Property Investors | Featuring Chris Graham show art Why a Buyer’s Agent Is a Game-Changer for Property Investors | Featuring Chris Graham

Hotspotting

Thinking of buying property on your own? 🏡 In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Terry Ryder is joined by Chris Graham, Senior Property Advisor at Australian Hotspot Advocacy, to explore why engaging a buyer’s agent could be the key to securing your next winning investment. What You'll Learn: What a buyer’s agent does and how they work exclusively for the buyer’s interests. The value of off-market properties and how buyer’s agents can provide access. Why having a professional on your team ensures due diligence and avoids costly mistakes. How to identify a trustworthy...

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Melbourne Market Myths show art Melbourne Market Myths

Hotspotting

Melbourne’s property market remains the great under-achiever of the nation but that may be about to change.   A number of key indicators suggest better performance by the Melbourne property market is imminent.   One pointer to better times is the latest Property Sentiment survey by API magazine, which recorded a major turnaround in investor attitudes towards the Victorian property market.   The survey asked: Which state or territory do you regard as having the best property investment prospects for the next 12 months?   Mid-year Melbourne and Victoria attracted only 8.6...

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Affordability is the most-debated and the most confused issue in residential real estate.

While the rental shortage and rising rents occupies the minds of many, the property issue that occupies the most space most often in news media and in the minds of Australian consumers is housing affordability.

It has been this way for years, indeed for decades. And while the so-called Great Australian Dream is often declared dead, with young people doomed to a lifetime of renting, the evidence suggests otherwise.

I recently finished working on a report with financial comparison website Canstar which demonstrates that the Dream is very much alive.

The Deposit Stars report shows that there are attainable options for young buyers in all our city and regional markets, including the biggest and most expensive cities.

And the finance data indicates our property markets remain as active as ever. 

A report from the Housing Industry Association in August 2024 noted that “various segments of the housing market are increasingly active, with lending to first-home buyers, owner occupiers, and investors increasing in the first half of 2024”, based on the latest ABS lending data.

HIA economist Maurice Tapang said: “This increase in lending is partially driven by first home buyers. The number of loans issued to FHBs in the June quarter was 5.8% higher than the March quarter.”

This reflects ABS data on the broader market encompassing all types of residential real estate loans up to the end of June 2024.

One of the reasons home ownership is often declared beyond the reach of the average consumer is that most reports are based on unrealistic parameters. 

As I comment in the Deposit Stars report, most analysis on affordability is based on the size of a 20% deposit to buy a house at the median price in our major cities and how long it would take to save such a deposit.

These reports preclude the possibility of smaller deposits, particularly with the help of government programs. 

They overlook the reality that most people entering the market for the first time buy houses in the lower price ranges well below the city’s median price.

And they usually ignore the preference of many buyers for attached dwellings – apartments, townhouses and units - and not only because they’re cheaper.

Many of the locations featured in the Canstar report reflect a growing phenomenon in Australian real estate: the rise of attached dwellings as the home of choice by more and more buyers.

A range of cohorts are opting increasingly for units and townhouses, including downsizers, lifestyle buyers, migrants and first-home buyers.

One of the features that draws growing numbers to apartments is location appeal. Not only do attached dwellings allow people to access property in good locations at cheaper prices than houses, but the average unit is better located than the average house.

The “Measuring Home Price Differences” report by Infrastructure Victoria found that units consistently trump houses on proximity to desirable features. 

The report says: “Units are located closer to selected infrastructure types, on average, than houses and townhouses.”

This is one of multiple factors driving higher demand for units – challenging the dominant paradigm of real estate (that houses always outperform units and townhouses on capital growth).

That is undoubtedly changing.

Recently Ubank, which is a division of National Australia Bank, published a survey which found more than half of Gen Z and Millennials who don’t own a home are looking to make a move on the property market within the next five years.

56 per cent of survey respondents – all Australian Gen Z and Millennials between the ages of 18 to 43 – aim to purchase their first property within the next five years.

Nine out of 10 respondents agrees that purchasing a home was one of their goals in life – although most acknowledged it won’t be easy.

In addition to all that, research from the Commonwealth Bank confirms that ownership remains an ambition and that the number of first-time buyers going it alone is growing.

According to data from the big four bank, 40 per cent of first home buyers purchased their property alone in the first six months of 2024 – without going in on the purchase with a partner, friend, or family member.

That’s a jump from the 35 per cent of first-time buyers doing the same in 2019.

So there is compelling evidence that home ownership not only remains a primary goal for young Australians, but that it is being achieved in growing numbers.