Hotspotting
The greatest complaint heard most often in real estate across Australia is that there are plenty of buyers, but a shortage of listings. The number of properties for sale has been well short of the levels needed for a balanced market, particularly in the boom cities of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. But that is steadily changing. According to SQM Research, total listings of properties for sale nationwide grew 7.6% in November and are now more than 10% higher than a year ago. Perhaps most significantly, there were major rises in November in those three boom cities, with the...
info_outline Media AbsurditiesHotspotting
Things are constantly changing in real estate nationwide but the one factor that never changes is this: we can always rely on news media to distort the facts and deliver a steady flow of misinformation to Australian consumers, all in the interests of attracting readership, with little regard for accuracy, honesty or fairness. The past week or so has been chockful of media nonsense. If you can believe the headlines, the national property boom is over, house prices are plunging, the rental boom is over and the North Queensland city of Townsville is a mining town. One of the constants of my...
info_outline 2025 PredictionsHotspotting
Rumours of the death of ‘the national property boom’ are greatly exaggerated – especially since we didn’t have a national property boom in 2024. Rather, over the past 12 months, we have seen differing market cycles in many locations - as is the usual state of play in real estate throughout Australia. Strong property price growth was recorded in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane in 2024, but not in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Darwin or Hobart. Similarly, in the regional areas, there were declining and stagnating markets, as well as some where prices were showing good price...
info_outline Regional Investment BoomHotspotting
Victoria’s real estate market is witnessing a significant shift as young first-home buyers increasingly seek affordable housing in regional areas. According to recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), first-home buyer loans in Victoria soared to 4,202 in July – the highest number in nearly two years. This surge reflects growing confidence among young buyers and a trend towards exploring housing options beyond Melbourne. Nationally, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Regional Australia Institute report that the flow of people from cities...
info_outline Units Beat HousesHotspotting
Hotspotting was among the first to identify and highlight the most significant change in the Australian real estate scene – the emerging trend which we document in the quarterly editions of the report titled The Rise and Rise of Apartments., published in association with Nuestar. This trend has turned upside down the dominant paradigm in real estate, that houses out-perform apartments on capital growth. There is now growing evidence that attached dwellings are mounting a strong challenge to houses. It has long been believed that land content was the big thing in driving...
info_outline Why a Buyer’s Agent Is a Game-Changer for Property Investors | Featuring Chris GrahamHotspotting
Thinking of buying property on your own? 🏡 In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Terry Ryder is joined by Chris Graham, Senior Property Advisor at Australian Hotspot Advocacy, to explore why engaging a buyer’s agent could be the key to securing your next winning investment. What You'll Learn: What a buyer’s agent does and how they work exclusively for the buyer’s interests. The value of off-market properties and how buyer’s agents can provide access. Why having a professional on your team ensures due diligence and avoids costly mistakes. How to identify a trustworthy...
info_outline Melbourne Market MythsHotspotting
Melbourne’s property market remains the great under-achiever of the nation but that may be about to change. A number of key indicators suggest better performance by the Melbourne property market is imminent. One pointer to better times is the latest Property Sentiment survey by API magazine, which recorded a major turnaround in investor attitudes towards the Victorian property market. The survey asked: Which state or territory do you regard as having the best property investment prospects for the next 12 months? Mid-year Melbourne and Victoria attracted only 8.6...
info_outline Interest Rates & PricesHotspotting
I have frequently highlighted the poor track record of economists in predicting outcomes in real estate markets across Australia – and in particular the embarrassingly bad record of economists working for the Big 4 banks and for other major institutions like AMP Capital. Their forecasts for house prices at the beginning of each of the past five years have been so far off the mark, it’s puzzling that the big-name economists who made these blunders have kept their jobs. Because what these outcomes mean is that these boffins have a very poor understanding of residential real...
info_outline The Property Playbook - Shifting perspective: the key players in Australia’s housing crisisHotspotting
The Property Playbook is a dynamic real estate show that empowers investors and professionals with the insights and strategies needed to achieve strong returns in the Australian property market. Hosted by Tim Graham & Terry Ryder from Hotspotting. In this episode, Tim Graham is joined by Ben Kingsley, Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia. to discuss advocacy work for property investors amidst legislative changes and their impact on the housing market. Ben emphasises the need for balance in tenant rights and business returns and dissects the consequences of...
info_outline Smart Investing Achieve More Than 6% Yield Without Compromising GrowthHotspotting
Discover how to achieve the ultimate win-win in property investment: high rental yields and strong capital growth. In this replay of Hotspotting's exclusive webinar, Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting, and Tim Graham, General Manager, reveal key insights from their groundbreaking "Pulse Report." Key Topics Covered: The Affordability Advantage: How affordable properties can outperform prime markets. Debunking the myth that cheap real estate doesn’t grow. Top Performing Locations: A spotlight on suburbs and regional areas delivering over 6% rental yields and up to 29%...
info_outlineAt Hotspotting we believe real estate markets are local in nature and are subject to the strength or weakness of the local economy.
While economists cling to their kindergarten theory that markets are essentially driven by interest rates, the stark differences in local markets across Australia suggest that there is something more powerful in play.
If it were true that high interest rates mean prices will fall, then everywhere in Australian would have falling property prices in 2024, which is what major bank economists and others like them predicted at the start of the year.
The reality that Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and many key regional centres have had booming property prices indicates that (a) the economists are wrong in their simplistic theory; and (b) there are larger forces of influence, which are local in nature.
And the record shows that the local economy is the key factor, over-riding any influence from interest rates, which are the same everywhere in Australia.
For that reason, I always take note the quarterly editions of The State of the States report published by CommSec, which is part of Commonwealth Bank.
For many years I’ve detected a correlation between the findings of that report and outcomes with property prices in our capital cities and our regional markets.
The report uses eight different metrics, including construction work, population growth, retail spending, housing finance and employment data, to rank the eight state and territory economies.
The latest quarterly edition of State of the States ranks the states and territories like this: Western Australia 1, South Australia 2, Queensland 3.
Not coincidentally, the leading cities with booming property prices are, in order, Perth 1, Adelaide 2 and Brisbane 3.
In addition to that, the leading regional markets are Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.
The report finds that the greatest strength for WA is population growth while the greatest weakness is dwelling starts – and those two factors working together would tend to put upward pressure on property prices (and rents).
South Australia’s greatest strength is economic growth while in Queensland it’s housing finance.
The jurisdictions with the weakest economies – the Northern Territory, the ACT and New South Wales – are also the places where property prices have been weak recently.
So if you want a simple method of detecting where dwelling prices are most likely to be strong, keep track of the quarterly editions of the State of the States report.