Market Surprises, Trump’s Tariffs & Commodities Soaring | 2025 Year-to-date returns reviewed

The Year So Far 📈

• Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends.

• The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs.

Trump’s Second Term 🏛️

• Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty.

• A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead.

Currency Moves 💱

• The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date.

• Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years!

Commodities on Fire 🔥

• Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs

• Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars

• Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging

Equities: Winners & Losers 📊
Top Performers:

• Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀

• Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom

• Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics

• British American Tobacco at record rand highs

Strugglers:

• Aspen -27% 🩺

• Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs

• Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5%

Global Markets Snapshot 🌐

• European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%)

• Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows

• Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally

• SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq

Key Lessons 🎓

• Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

• When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles.

• Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan.

The Dollar Story 💵

• Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months.

• Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets.

• The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows.

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🗓️ Upcoming Event

Power Hour – 21 July (Monday)
Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown
🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events

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📈 More Resources

• Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday:
  justonelap.com/ETFs

• Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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