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It's been a year, but markets loved it

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Release Date: 12/02/2025

Boxer's Blinder & The Pick & Pay Valuation That Makes No Sense show art Boxer's Blinder & The Pick & Pay Valuation That Makes No Sense

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Boxer just posted ShopRite-level operating margins — so why is Pick & Pay, which owns 65% of it, trading at an implied negative enterprise value? Simon Brown unpacks the R10bn valuation paradox and whether it's a genuine opportunity. He also walks through his new AI-powered research workflow, using Claude and ChatGPT to produce and fact-check full initiating coverage reports on Balwin Properties and Raubex. Plus: gold miners Goldfields and AngloGold Ashanti on costs, Meta at its cheapest forward PE since 2022, and Open Router token data that shows xAI running a distant fourth behind...

info_outline Hyperscaler Results, Berkshire's Cash Pile and Fuel Pain show art Hyperscaler Results, Berkshire's Cash Pile and Fuel Pain

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion. Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure. Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs. The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5. Closer to home,...

info_outline Tim Cook Out, Tariff Refunds In, Markets Back At Highs show art Tim Cook Out, Tariff Refunds In, Markets Back At Highs

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back. Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers. Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went...

info_outline The Hormuz The Hormuz "Blockade" Has Fine Print | So Does the SA Fuel Crisis

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure. Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position. FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced...

info_outline SA Retail Stocks: Where the Value Is Right Now show art SA Retail Stocks: Where the Value Is Right Now

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

South African consumer stocks have been hammered. In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken. He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation. Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why....

info_outline Six Space Stocks Reviewed, Which Ones Are Worth It? show art Six Space Stocks Reviewed, Which Ones Are Worth It?

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype...

info_outline Tariffs are Back with no Ceiling and Gold at $4,000 show art Tariffs are Back with no Ceiling and Gold at $4,000

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them. Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on. Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling. Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space...

info_outline War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline show art War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can. 🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of...

info_outline As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone show art As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669 📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & 🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain. Simon’s strategy right now? 🧘 Do nothing. Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold. 🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120 Oil has been incredibly volatile. 📊 Recent moves Early January: ~$60 Monday spike: ~$120 Tuesday: briefly below...

info_outline Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative show art Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰 This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it. Key Changes: 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%) 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m After years of “tax by stealth,” this budget offered...

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Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

“It’s Been a Year… But Markets Loved It”

📆 3 December 2025
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

  • Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

  • If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you’d think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

  • Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

  • Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI’s multi-billion dollar spend.

  • Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China’s rapid AI emergence.

  • Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

  • Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

  • Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

  • Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

  • SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

  • Rand collapses into “Liberation Tariff Day”, hits 19.90 → quickly followed by “90 deals in 90 days” promises.

  • Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

  • US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

  • By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

  • Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

  • Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

  • Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon’s Mind

  • Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

    • ❌ slow

    • ❌ bad at text

    • ❌ struggles with edits

  • NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

    • ⚡ insanely fast

    • 🔠 perfect text edits

    • 🎨 clean output

  • Alphabet has:

    • 💰 massive free cash flow

    • 🌐 billions of users

    • 📢 advertising infrastructure

  • → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

  • Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

  • Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

    • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

    • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

  • Conclusion:

    • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it’s not bursting yet.

    • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"]Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025 Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

  • Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn’t reacting positively.

  • Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

  • Breaking support levels:

    • ⚠️ If current zone doesn’t hold → sub-$70k likely.

  • Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

    • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

    • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"]Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025 Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

  • 📈 +0.5% QoQ

  • 📈 +2.1% YoY

  • 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

    • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

  • 👍 GDP uptick

  • ⬆️ Credit upgrades

  • ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

  • ⬇️ Lower rates coming

  • 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

  • Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

  • Yields: high single digits

  • Winners depend on style:

    • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

    • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

    • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

  • Formerly Capital & Counties.

  • Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

  • Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

  • Fundamentals:

    • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

    • 📉 Yield 2.7%

    • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

  • Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

  • SA REITs had:

    • 🚀 Huge 2024

    • 📈 Strong 2025

  • Many now trade around NAV:

    • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

    • Octodec → still at discount

  • Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

  • Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

  • If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

  • Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

  • Small caps that surprised everyone.

  • Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA’s slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always:
💙 Look after yourself.
🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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