6-27-24 Market Downtrend: Understanding Snowball Effects and the Role of the Fed
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Wrapping up the month of June, and the start of a new Quarter in July: Expect market volatility. Micron's miss will weigh on tech sector. Analysts' estimates have dropped by $5/share for Q3, lowering the bar in anticipation of next reporting season. Final Q1 GDP revision due today. Moving closer to July Fed meeting and possible rate cuts? Jobless claims are climbing. Options markets begin to bet on Presidential election outcome. Why is Wall Street selling off Nvidia now? Debate preview & potential drinking games thereof; July Fed meeting preview; it's a boring Fed for now. Banks passing...
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6-27-24 Why Is Wall Street Selling off Nvidia?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Tonight's "great debate" doesn't mean much from a market perspective. However, with three months to go before the Presidential election, options markets have begun (already!) pricing-out the outcomes. Yes, Virginia, Wall Street bets on the election...just like they bet on everything else! Markets are fairly elevated, deviated way above long-term trends. There is nothing to suggest a bigger correction is in the offing...but, behind the scenes we see the correction in XLK, primarily due to the selloff in Nvidia. The trend for technologies may be fine for now, but hedge funds and Wall Street have...
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6-26-24 The Irony in Consumer Confidence
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Pre-debate, Consumer Confidence, and a rally for Nvidia: earnings preview & market commentary: How long can markets remain over-bought? Investors' common mistakes: Acting too soon, and over-reacting. Markets can remain over-bought for a long time; a function of market momentum. Consumer confidence has been trending lower; the dichotomy of consumer expectations vs market performance. Vacation Theory & Consumer Confidence: what policies were in place? CNBC Economists: 2nd Trump term would re-heat inflation? Why tariff;s lead to inflation (and how consumers get aroun them.) 44% of...
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6-26-24 How Long Can Markets Remain Over-bought?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are over-bought and can stay that way for a long time. Being over-bought is a function of momentum. A lot of market momentum will drive asset prices higher. This does NOT mean you won't see small corrections back to a support line...which tend to be buying opportunities instead of selling opportunities. Look at market behavior from November '23 thru march of this year: Markets remained over-bought until, finally, we got a 5% correction. Just because markets are over-bought does not mean they're not going to go up. This is why it's important to remain patient and not over react. Hosted...
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6-25-24 Is S&P 6,300 Outside the Realm of Possibility?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Fed speakers are out this week, talking the same game. Lance examines corellation between the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and economic growth, and what posts to X (formerly known as Twitter) are to be called. Who does the Fed depend upon for data? There are many divergences in the data; Nvidia's bad day(s): Stock split and 13% drop is a correction, not a crash. Doing the math to S&P 6,300 and looking at the range of possibilities. We address the common investor's desire for a perfect low-risk, high-reward investment. Lance & Jon discuss the unrealistic expectations and the...
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6-25-24 What to do with Nvidia?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Did the darling of Wall Street take a drubbing? Nvidia headlines were rampant following its huge run and a 10:1 stock split. Now the stock has dropped 13% in three days. Don't panic. When Nvidia was trading at $1,000/share, and small ($50k) investors wanted to make it 1% of their portfolio, they could only buy one share. (In a $50k account, that's a 2% position.) There was no "reduction" in the position with those numbers; the only choice was to sell the share. That's the problem with small accounts and big dollar stocks, which makes risk management an all-or-nothing proposition. Heading into...
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6-24-24 Avoid These Common Trading Mistakes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market volatility closed out last week, as investors prepare to wrap June and Q2 business. Triple-witching Friday added to the excitement, and markets remain extremely over bought. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index has been negatice for 27-mos in a row; always a precessor of Recession. Lance discusses investors' two common mistakes when markets negatively diverge (w charts). A look at Market Cap Weighting vs Equal Weighting in porfolios; is it time for a clean-up? The problem with Economic Data and how it's derived: Sentiment surveys are not hard data points. Separate emotion from...
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6-24-24 Markets Remain Over-bought
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets got extremely over-bought last week, and on Thursday and Friday began to burn off some of the excess. Much of the activity was due to options expirations on Friday. Technology has been driving the S&P, of late. Nvidia was everyone's concern over the weekend after a decent, 3% dell off. Markets are over-bought, and we're due for a correction, or at least some consolidation to bring the moving average up to markets, or prices must correct back to the moving averages. Investor sentiment is high, which is typically the time to be a bit more risk averse. Goldman thinks the S&P will...
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Could Tax Policy Shrink the Economy?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are performing the job of the Fed; is the economy stronger? Rich & Jon look at the "Olive Garden economic indicator: Who's dining out, and who is staying in? How to unravel high restaurant prices 9and everything else, too!) Baby Boomers are still spending. Candid Coffee preview (egistration link below); Investor complacency is troubling. The Genworth settlement = 100% increase in premiums. Financial Dust Bunnies. Nvidia performance cannot continue indefinitely; the data the markets are ignoring. Social Security COLA adjustments to reverse; unrest is whoing up in election results;...
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Debunking Dollarization: Why the Dollar Is Stronger Than Ever
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Petro-dollar fears and how you're being sold by Wall Street. Our narrative should be how to make money. The "demise" of the petro-dollar; keeping currencies all relative within a range is important for Trade. The Gold/Dollar dynamic; why the world...
info_outlineMarkets got extremely over-bought last week, and on Thursday and Friday began to burn off some of the excess. Much of the activity was due to options expirations on Friday. Technology has been driving the S&P, of late. Nvidia was everyone's concern over the weekend after a decent, 3% dell off. Markets are over-bought, and we're due for a correction, or at least some consolidation to bring the moving average up to markets, or prices must correct back to the moving averages. Investor sentiment is high, which is typically the time to be a bit more risk averse. Goldman thinks the S&P will hit 6,300 by the end of the year; meanwhile, markets are at 5,400. It's not impossible, but...
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_N5nG1kXUA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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