EP41 - Canadian Sentiment on Trump’s Tariffs with Gregory Jack & Naumi Haque

Where do you stand on Trump and the tariffs? CMA CEO Alison Simpson welcomes Gregory Jack, SVP of Public Affairs, Strategic Communication & Market Research, and Naumi Haque, SVP of Research – Market Strategy & Understanding, both from Ipsos. Their timely discussion highlights an Ipsos member survey quantifying Canadians’ sentiments about today’s economic and political climate. Learn how Canadians unite to defend the country’s economy and sovereignty and discover how you can stand with your fellow Canadians.

00:00:01:18 - 00:00:22:21
Presenter
Welcome to CMA Connect, Canada's marketing podcast, where industry experts discuss how marketers must manage the tectonic shifts that will change how brands and businesses are built for tomorrow, while also delivering on today's business needs. With your host, CMA CEO Alison Simpson.

00:00:22:23 - 00:00:58:00
Alison
We are certainly living in interesting times with tariffs and the 51st state nonsense creating uncertainty, we're seeing Canadians come together to defend our economy and also our sovereignty. In today's episode, we are sharing new research that quantifies how Canadians are reacting to Trump, tariffs and the turmoil that they're both creating. The ongoing study by CMA member Ipsos is tracking Canadians' sentiment and how it's quickly evolving on many key measures, including buying Canadian and how Canadian consumers are balancing their desire to support local brands with concerns about rising costs and affordability.

00:00:58:01 - 00:01:24:21
Alison
Joining me today are Naumi Haque, Senior Vice President of Market Strategy and Understanding, and Greg Jack, Senior Vice President of Public Affairs, Strategic Communication Market Research, both from Ipsos. Naumi is an Insights Leader with over two decades of experience in the research and advisory industries across several great companies, including Google. In his current role, Naumi is managing customer research projects for companies in a variety of sectors including retail, cannabis and tech.

00:01:24:23 - 00:01:45:07
Alison
He was at the forefront of global research that tracked the impact of Covid 19 on citizens and consumers, and is now leading a tracking study on how Canadians are responding to Trump and tariffs. Greg leads the Ottawa Public Affairs practice for Ipsos. He's also a Boomerang member of their team, having first worked there as a VP in their Calgary office in 2019 to 2023.

00:01:45:08 - 00:02:06:05
Alison
Greg's held a variety of roles in the federal government and also worked for Suncor and the Government of Alberta early in his career. He brings extensive experience in both market research and helping brands and governments get their message out. Today, Greg, Naomi and I are digging into the research findings to discuss the impact that the economic and political uncertainty are having on Canadians.

00:02:06:07 - 00:02:27:02
Alison
We'll discuss intriguing generational differences and also how Canadian consumers' attitudes towards US-based companies that are operating in Canada are changing. We'll highlight the opportunities and challenges that the rise of Canadian patriotism and the shifting sentiment and marketplace can represent for marketers. Welcome, Greg and Naumi, it's a pleasure to have you both with us today.

00:02:27:04 - 00:02:27:21
Gregory
Thank you.

00:02:27:23 - 00:02:29:08
Naumi
Thanks for having us.

00:02:29:10 - 00:02:39:15
Alison
So Naumi, I'd love you to kick things off. How has the "Buy Canadian" sentiment evolved since the start of the US Canada trade tensions? And what implications does this have for marketers?

00:02:39:17 - 00:03:03:07
Naumi
For sure. I mean, it's been, it's been a crazy month. So there's definitely the "Buy Canadian sentiment", is going strong. There's actually, you know, we see two things happening, right? There's patriotic purchasing, so people trying to buy Canadian or avoid American. And there's another shift happening with consumers, which is that we see just general conservatism. People are pulling back a little bit on spending because of all the uncertainty that's happening around the tariffs and the impact on prices.

00:03:03:08 - 00:03:23:13
Naumi
So in terms of how it's evolving, we're definitely seeing the sentiment grow. So it's not just Buy Canadian, it's avoid American. And right now we're looking at the two thirds of Canadians that say they're making an effort to buy Canadian. And that's gone up from just over half of Canadians about a month ago. And on the boycotting American side, we're also seeing growth in that number.

00:03:23:14 - 00:03:46:07
Naumi
So it's 58% of Canadians, right now are saying they're avoiding American products. And that's up from 47% a month ago. And then there's also, you know, about a third of Canadians that are stopping traveling from the US. So there's just right now a lot of, I think, angst with Canadians in terms of the US. And then there's the other part that I mentioned, the sort of being a little bit more conservative.

00:03:46:09 - 00:04:16:18
Naumi
We see Canadians generally pulling back on spending. So about a third of them right now are telling us that in the past, two weeks, they've pulled back on spending or more tightly budgeted their money because of everything that's happening with tariffs and uncertainty. So it's definitely, you know, a strong sentiment amongst Canadians. It's growing. And I think the implication for marketers is there's there's obviously a risk if you're an American company, there's an opportunity if you're a Canadian company and can sort of communicate your Canadian credentials.

00:04:16:20 - 00:04:39:02
Naumi
And then there's also this focus on value. But to to capture some of those people that are pulling back on spending. But ultimately, the bottom line I think for marketers is that, you know, like I said, the last month had been crazy. It's been crazy for us as market researchers, but it's been crazy for consumers. And the most important thing to remember is that right now, all of those brand decisions that consumers are making, they're they're sort of up in the air, right.

00:04:39:03 - 00:04:59:20
Naumi
Like we we as marketers, we spend a lot of time thinking about, oh, how do we how do we break through? Right. How do we get our message to resonate with Canadians? And, you know, in some categories we see that it's really tough to break through. Right. Like in CPG categories, it can be 60, 70% of people are on autopilot. Well, right now that inertia around brands is broken.

00:05:00:00 - 00:05:07:03
Naumi
And so it's an opportunity. And I mean, we're expecting to be very busy as market researchers in the next little bit. Let's put it that way.

00:05:07:05 - 00:05:18:04
Alison
It's amazing. And it's moving at such warp speed. It's incredible. I'd love to hear if you're seeing any regional differences, because typically in Canada we would see regional differences. But I don't know that that's applying in the situation.

00:05:18:06 - 00:05:37:09
Naumi
I mean, the sentiment is across the country, but we definitely do see regional differences. What's interesting is, you know, even in places where do you think, oh, well, you know, them a little bit holding back like in Quebec. Right. It's even people in Quebec now rallying around Canada and sort of that national pride. So it really is coast to coast.

00:05:37:11 - 00:05:54:06
Gregory
You know, I think Naumi really hit the nail on the head in. What we're seeing in Quebec is fascinating because all of a sudden, Québecers are rallying around the Canadian flag, and we are seeing that in some of the voting intentions during the federal election in our polls. And we're also seeing it anecdotally in stories that you see in the media and in our numbers.

00:05:54:08 - 00:06:06:02
Gregory
The real difference, as we're going to discuss, I think, is not regional but generational. But Canadians from coast to coast have really signed up to this Buy Canadian, Avoid American movement that we're seeing emerging.

00:06:06:04 - 00:06:18:14
Alison
That's a great shout out, Greg, and I'd love you to drill down on that and really help our listeners understand the generational differences that we are seeing based on the current economic situation and how this is also impacting marketing strategies.

00:06:18:16 - 00:06:40:01
Gregory
Right. And Naomi and I wrote a while ago paper called "Nuanced Nationalism", and the paper talked about how the nationalist movement or the Buy Canadian, Avoid American movement has significant generational differences. And what we're finding is that it's the Baby Boomers who are leading the charge here. Younger Canadians are more likely to put price over patriotism. Now, that's not to say that younger Canadians aren't behind this.

00:06:40:01 - 00:06:58:15
Gregory
They are. And these numbers are, are still showing majorities in most groups. All age groups, in fact, have been saying that they've been changing their behaviour and they've been paying attention. But there are some generational differences. Right now, for example, 66% of Baby Boomers say that we can never again trust the Americans the same way. And that's just 45% of Gen Z.

00:06:58:17 - 00:07:15:00
Gregory
We see 80% of Boomers saying that despite the current dispute with the U.S. is going to bring Canadians together, which we've been saying it's been doing, j  ust 63% of Gen Z are saying that. And so these are these are, you know, big differences that do suggest there's there's some nuanced nationalism happening. And we see this in purchasing, too.

00:07:15:01 - 00:07:45:19
Gregory
While 7 in 10 Canadians say that we should stand up to Trump with retaliatory tariffs, even if that means Canadians have to pay more, that number goes up to eight in ten among Boomers, and it's just five in ten among Gen Z. So Naumi alluded earlier to how Canadians are pulling back their spending. And really the group that is most affected by this, who may have the most to lose and not be able to afford to buy something that's more expensive or change their travel plans, are the younger group and the Boomers, on the other hand, who have and continue to have a lot of wealth in Canada are the ones

00:07:45:19 - 00:07:56:07
Gregory
who are able to put their money where their mouth is and change their behaviour to send a signal to the Americans, and also to potentially, affect the American economy and goods.

00:07:56:08 - 00:08:10:19
Alison
Greg, in addition to the financial reality for younger Canadians, are you seeing other contributing factors to why they're not as supportive of Buy Canadian or as against, what's going on from an American perspective?

00:08:10:21 - 00:08:31:21
Gregory
Yeah, I think that some of the, the attachment to Canada and the, the unity question comes into play here. We see lower attachment among Gen Z'ers to Canada. And there's a variety of reasons that could be behind that. They're more likely to be new Canadians. And so they don't have the shared history. They haven't necessarily been through the ups and downs of the markets and Canada-U.S. relations that the Baby Boomers remember.

00:08:31:23 - 00:09:02:11
Gregory
And, you know, you think back to the 70s and the 80s and how all of that might have changed. And of course, Baby Boomers, as I pointed out, have really benefited from the Old World Order, the old Canada that we've all enjoyed. And so for them, they just want to preserve the status quo. For younger Canadians, they feel that the status quo is broken and they want to rebuild the institutions that they don't feel have been working for them as coming up to now and, and find that this might be an opportunity to do that, or at the very least, they don't have the same level of attachment to Canada that their older parents and

00:09:02:11 - 00:09:03:20
Gregory
grandparents might have.

00:09:03:22 - 00:09:27:03
Naumi
And I can add to that, too. I think there's also a lot of attachment with young people to America, American brands, they, you know, they've grown up consuming American media, American social media, and a lot of the brands that are present in Canada right now are American brands. And so they've grown up with that. So there's also that sort of like Greg was saying, less of an attachment to Canada, maybe, but, you know, for some of them, more of an attachment to, to the U.S. as well.

00:09:27:05 - 00:09:40:17
Alison
And building on that, with the rise of TikTok and brands outside of North America, are we seeing younger Canadians with a more global perspective, or is it still gravitating more towards the U.S. than other countries?

00:09:40:18 - 00:09:58:22
Naumi
It's a it's an interesting question. We did some generational research last year, and one of the hypotheses that we had that we wanted to test was, Gen Z are potentially the first truly global generation, because they've had access to, like you said, all the social media. And so are they the first generation that globally, you know, has a shared worldview?

00:09:59:02 - 00:10:17:19
Naumi
And so there is some evidence to that, it's really tough to, to, to sort of measure that we you know, we did do a study in about 15 different countries to try to get at it and see, you know, what are the commonalities that they have. And it's it's interesting, like a lot of the the differences that you'd expect it to be attributed to age were not.

00:10:17:19 - 00:10:41:07
Naumi
And young people are sort of, you know, it really depends if you're left or right or sort of, where where you come from also plays a little bit of a difference. The one thing that we saw that they were truly sort of connected on was a shared sentiment and frustration, which is interesting. It's, you know, it's they are the truly first global generation in that they are all feeling that maybe they're worse off than previous generations.

00:10:41:07 - 00:10:57:12
Naumi
They're all feeling a little bit more frustrated with the world right now. If you look at some of the emotions that they project, they're all, you know, a little bit more likely to be, to be frustrated, to be disengaged. And so there's there is that that we see happening. I don't know if it's as a result of social media.

00:10:57:13 - 00:11:02:18
Naumi
There's still sort of a lot of open questions there. Definitely a hypothesis that we're testing. And I think there is some truth to it.

00:11:03:00 - 00:11:20:16
Gregory
And I just want to add to that, Naumi and I and some of our colleagues last week did a webinar called "From the Pandemic to the Present", and we looked at some of these measures through the lens of generation and attachment. One of the most interesting questions that we talked about in that webinar was where people see their chances of success coming from.

00:11:20:18 - 00:11:40:07
Gregory
We offered them an option. You know, people's chances of success and their country depend mostly on their own merit or efforts, versus people's chances of success in their country depend mostly on factors beyond their control. And this was a global question we asked of 22,000 people online. When you look at Canada, you see a really, really clear picture.

00:11:40:08 - 00:12:03:12
Gregory
56% of Boomers said it's due to merit and effort, and only 18% said factors beyond their control. But by the time you get down to Gen Z, those numbers are tied. 31% of Gen Z say that it's due to merit and 30% say it's factors beyond their control. And so we have seen globally some of this difficulty for Generation Z to get a start in life and take advantage of the institutions that their parents and grandparents had.

00:12:03:14 - 00:12:22:12
Gregory
But I think that our research does show that that sentiment is stronger in Canada in some ways than it is in other places. And, you know, going back to what I was saying earlier, part of that is driven by cost, of cost of living and not having the means. But part of it, I think, too, is, as you point out, as Naumi says, based on how different their world experiences from other generations.

00:12:22:14 - 00:12:34:06
Alison
That's very fascinating. Thank you both for sharing more on that. And then, Naumi, I'd love to hear from you how Canadian consumers are balancing their desire to support local brands with concerns about rising costs and affordability.

00:12:34:08 - 00:12:51:10
Naumi
Yeah, and we sort of kicked the conversation off with that, right? There's the desire to buy Canadian and sort of patriotic purchasing. And then there's the you know, at the same time, it's it costs money. And so we're having to pullback right now. What we're seeing is that, Canadians are pissed and they're they're willing to absorb some pain.

00:12:51:12 - 00:13:22:04
Naumi
So you know, it started off that discussion with with tariffs. And and Trump is a bit of an inconvenience. You know sort of in the news. And then it became more of an insult. And I think, you know, all the 51st state rhetoric was probably a tactical mistake on Trump's part. It ignited a lot of emotion in Canada, to the point where now, we have two thirds of Canadians that are saying we should retaliate against Trump, even if it means Canadians have to pay more for things because they want to send a message, and I don't know that that's the response Americans were expecting from Canadians.

00:13:22:04 - 00:13:43:09
Naumi
That we would stand up for ourselves so much. But we're definitely seeing that right now. We're also willing, as Canadians to spend to support Canada, and even more so than than the Americans are right now. So 74% of Canadians say they had paid more for Canadian-made products in the past week. That was 66% among Americans that said that they paid more to buy American-made goods,

00:13:43:11 - 00:14:05:21
Naumi
as a result of, everything that's happening right now. So, you know, south of the border, we do see shifts in purchasing, but they're much more driven by sort of financial concerns, people being more conservative. But up here in Canada, it's definitely more driven by patriotism, at least for now. So I think we'll, we'll see how long that lasts or how long we can afford our morals.

00:14:05:23 - 00:14:11:22
Naumi
But right now, it seems like Canadians are willing to, to suffer a little bit to buy Canadian and to boycott the U.S.

00:14:12:00 - 00:14:25:13
Alison
There are some categories where it can be more challenging to find Canadian brands and products. So is that driving the, well, if I can't find it in Canada, then as long as it's anywhere but the U.S., I feel that I'm fighting back.

00:14:25:15 - 00:14:47:01
Gregory
Yeah, we're definitely seeing that. There's there's a mixture of avoid American and buy Canadian. You can't obviously buy certain products in Canada. So we're trying to find ways to to buy things like lemons from South Africa, is something that I saw in the grocery store the other day. And, you know, anecdotally, we needed some strawberries a couple of weeks ago, and there was American strawberries for $2.99.

00:14:47:01 - 00:15:09:00
Gregory
And then there were, I think Canadian strawberries were $5.99 or something? And and we bought the Canadian strawberries because we were willing to, you know, put a little bit of money behind that. I think that's definitely something that's happening. But people are looking for that Canadian claim. They want to buy Canadian products where they can. And it's not always clear what a Canadian product is, how these things are measured.

00:15:09:02 - 00:15:28:00
Gregory
The most impactful one is the Made in Canada label. Half of Canadians say that that label satisfies their desire to buy Canadian products. In contrast, Product of Canada is slightly lower, but we know from the CFIA requirements that the requirements for Product of Canada are actually much stronger. So 98% of the ingredients have to be Canadian.

00:15:28:01 - 00:15:46:11
Gregory
The threshold for Made in Canada is quite a bit lower. 51% of the total cost must occur in Canada, and the last transformation must occur in Canada. So that's complex. I think Canadians are becoming more aware of what these labels are meaning. I don't know about you, but when I walk through the grocery store, there's always people holding a package up and staring at the small print.

00:15:46:13 - 00:16:03:17
Gregory
I would imagine that companies will start making it more prominent where their products come from if this continues. And probably not just here, I would say that this is probably going to start to happen in other places as well. But there's a lot of confusion right now about the meaning of those terms, and there's some fear that some retailers might be taking advantage of this "Buy Canadian."

00:16:03:22 - 00:16:22:05
Gregory
According to some news reports we've seen in publications like the Globe and Mail. So I think the Globe called it "maple washing", which is something we used in our survey as well. I don't think we thought of it, but it seems to be a pretty widespread claim. And we found that half of Canadians would stop buying from a company altogether if they found that it was exaggerating how Canadian these products are.

00:16:22:05 - 00:16:41:18
Gregory
So, one thing that doesn't resonate is "packaged in Canada." Only 6% say that that satisfies their demand to buy a Canadian product, and only 15% say they would willingly pay more for a product that is made in the USA but packaged in Canada. So this is one way that I think retailers and producers are trying to get that Canadian angle in there and say it's packaged here.

00:16:42:00 - 00:17:03:14
Gregory
That doesn't seem to be as strong a claim as some of the others. And of course, the best option that the people support the most is to buy a Canadian product made in Canada by a Canadian-owned company. 73% said they would pay more for a product that meets that description. And so I think that there's a lot of nuance in the Buy Canadian Avoid American, just like there's a bunch of generational nuance that we've alluded to.

00:17:03:16 - 00:17:28:11
Naumi
Yeah. I mean, and it's evolving a little bit, right, too? So I think there's more nuanced understanding now. I think we started out with a bit more of like, you know, screw everything American kind of mentality because we were feeling insulted, like I said before. But, you know, Canadians want to support Canadians and Canadian jobs. So there's the question of, you know, if a company is American-owned, but they make their products in Canada, is it okay to support them? Right now

00:17:28:11 - 00:17:51:23
Naumi
that's close to 50% of Canadians that agree with that. That was four in ten about a month ago. So, you know, there's that shift of yeah, you know, it's, it's okay if it's an American Company. They're here. They're supporting Canadian jobs or it's a Canadian franchise. They're supporting the Canadian community. So there's, there's definitely that as well. And then you mentioned retailers, Greg, I think definitely we're seeing people that are willing to boycott retailers.

00:17:51:23 - 00:18:11:05
Naumi
But I think they get a bit more of a pass. Right. So we said a quarter of Canadians are avoiding American retailers. That's much lower than the percent that are avoiding American products, which is closer to six in ten. So, like Costco is a good example. I mean, I was I was shopping at Costco recently and, you know, it is an American retailer, but we were still there trying to buy Canadian.

00:18:11:05 - 00:18:24:11
Naumi
And I would say about 80% of the items that we left with that they were in our cart, you know, were Canadian products. So there is still an option of, yeah, I can I can support an American retailer, but I can, but I can buy Canadian as well.

00:18:24:13 - 00:18:46:14
Alison
And I understand that Costco was also making it easier, so when you walk in Costco, they're profiling the Canadian brands and products as well. And then Greg, going back to your point, it's such an important education and difference between Product of Canada, Made in Canada. The CMA in February issued an article to help marketers understand, because any that fall victim to "maple washing",

00:18:46:14 - 00:18:57:14
Alison
there's such a loss of trust in customers. And your research data proves that when Canadians figure out that "maple washing" is happening, it's not just a short term pain for the brand and business, it will have longer term implications.

00:18:57:16 - 00:19:10:17
Gregory
Yeah, even if they do it accidentally, if they're not meaning to mislead people, but people feel misled, that alone will will have consequences and then if they are deliberately misleading, I would wager that it's going to be even more severe of a reaction.

00:19:10:19 - 00:19:29:11
Naumi
I think on the flip side of the "maple washing", though, for, for, you know, for the the American brands, that may be listening in and, you know, the marketers that are supporting American brands, there is some goodwill to be gained about talking about, you know, supporting Canadian jobs and supporting the local community and things like that as well, which, you know, not to say just because you're an American brand, you shouldn't be talking about that.

00:19:29:11 - 00:19:39:03
Naumi
You can still talk about it, you know, even if you're not Made in Canada or 100% Product of Canada. Well, we support the Canadian community, we support Canadian jobs. And that that's still going to resonate.

00:19:39:05 - 00:20:04:16
Alison
It speaks to the complexity of the issue, because there are so many Canadian businesses that have significant holdings in Canada, significant employee places in Canada, and are actively contributing to our economy. So as the tariffs and Trump and chaos continue, figuring out how Canadians' views are evolving around both Canadian brands and businesses, but also American brands and businesses that are in our country and participating in our economy

00:20:04:16 - 00:20:20:16
Alison
is going to be fascinating to see how Canadians feelings change and evolve. And I know it's early days, but in the research so far, are you  seeing any challenges or opportunities for those American companies that have Canadian employee bases and are contributing to the economy?

00:20:20:18 - 00:20:42:05
Naumi
I mean, I think there's a lot of uncertainty still, I think it's maybe still a little bit early to say how Canadians are going to net out. You know, perhaps as we start to see more a sort of financial pain behind it, they're going to become more critical. But I think right now there is for sure an opportunity, like I was saying, you know, as an American company, you can still be supporting Canadian jobs.

00:20:42:05 - 00:20:58:06
Naumi
I know some of the retailers that we work with talk about that the American companies that are, you know, in the QSR space or restaurant space, there is, you know, often Canadian franchisees, even though the brand is American, you know, even for like you're saying, those American companies, there's there's an opportunity here as well.

00:20:58:08 - 00:21:10:04
Alison
And we touched on this a bit earlier, Naumi, but I'd love to you to elaborate more on the trends that you're seeing in consumers' willingness to pay more for Canadian products, and are you seeing variances across different product groups?

00:21:10:06 - 00:21:33:04
Naumi
For sure. Category makes a huge difference. So food is most important. It's something you buy all the time. And it's also easy to identify, right? It's right on there. Where's the product from? Where is it grown? So food's most important. And some, you know, for for some foods there there aren't good Canadian options. But you know there's an anecdotal story about a customer in  grocery store looking for Canadian oranges.

00:21:33:04 - 00:21:55:04
Naumi
Right? It's like, we don't have that, but where's the next best place I can get oranges? So in food, it's definitely important. But it may also be not just buy Canadian but don't buy American. So look for those alternatives, you know, South America, Europe wherever. And other important categories - financial services. So Trump started talking about Canada opening up to more U.S. financial services as one of the requirements.

00:21:55:06 - 00:22:18:04
Naumi
That's not really something Canadians want right now. There's a strong sense of, you know, I want my financial services to be provided by Canadian institutions. So that's another important one. T ravel. There's been a lot of press coverage on travel. Canadians don't really want to go to the U.S. right now. So we did some research around travel destinations. You know, back in January, among Canadians that were planning leisure trips

00:22:18:04 - 00:22:36:12
Naumi
in the next few months, 47% were planning to head to the U.S. About half of Canadians in any given time that are planning leisure trips are going to the States. In March, that number cratered. It was like down to 29%, the lowest it's been since we've been tracking it. So, you know, people are choosing to go elsewhere. They're going to Europe, they're taking their money to other places.

00:22:36:12 - 00:22:55:02
Naumi
The ones that people seem to care less about are things like electronics. A lot of the brands aren't Canadian or American, you know, the Asian brands for a lot of electronics. So that doesn't tend to be much of an issue. Streaming services. You may be surprised to know, people, no one wants to give up their their Netflix or their Disney Plus.

00:22:55:04 - 00:23:16:23
Naumi
So we're seeing sort of a stronghold on on streaming services. And then to some extent personal care and, you know, over-the-counter medications, things like that, that things you get in the drugstore, are a bit more protected from Canadian sentiment right now. We don't see that same level of commitment to buying Canadian or avoiding American. And I think it just comes down to, you know, it's, it's things that are related,

00:23:17:01 - 00:23:42:17
Naumi
if you're putting it in your body, it's related to your health and wellness, you're not going to sort of make decisions on that based on patriotism. So definitely differences by categories. The one that I think we'll we'll have to wait and see on, that we're watching continue to track is large purchases. You know, so things like cars that they don't people don't buy as often, or you know, we hear anecdotally about Canadian snowbirds selling their U.S. properties.

00:23:42:17 - 00:23:56:22
Naumi
I mean, those are things that take a lot longer, or cars aren't thought as frequently, so we don't have data on that right now. So we'll see what, sort of happens with those larger purchases. But my sense is that, you know, these for now, we're not seeing a huge shift there.

00:23:57:00 - 00:24:22:06
Alison
The automotive is an interesting one, because I read another report where the last quarter we just finished, automotive in Canada actually saw a spike. And the thinking is that's because people that were thinking of buying were either delaying their decision for a year or accelerated it before the impact of the tariffs hit. And then Greg, looking ahead, how do you foresee the current Buy Canadian trend evolving and what should marketers be preparing for in the coming months or years.

00:24:22:06 - 00:24:28:07
Alison
And I know a years is probably too long a horizon at this stage in the game. So why don't we focus it more at once?

00:24:28:09 - 00:24:43:08
Gregory
Sure. I mean, we advised our clients to look at this sort of in threes; the next three weeks, the next three months, and the next three years. And obviously, the further you get to the future, the harder it is to say. Right now, the question that we've been asking ourselves at Ipsos and we've been throwing this term around, is whether this is a moment or a movement.

00:24:43:13 - 00:25:00:05
Gregory
Are people going to abandon this buy Canadian, avoid American, if we finally either get used to things or if we reach a settlement with the U.S. of some sort, or if people made the choice for for the longer term, that they're simply not going to go back to some of these products, either because they found a pretty good substitute

00:25:00:05 - 00:25:18:11
Gregory
they get used to, or because they're, they're just, as Naumi said, pissed, and are unlikely to to let that anger go very quickly. So we don't yet know that. But but, where I'm honouring that question, I think that right now we've seen a lot of talk as well about strengthening ties to Europe. Our poll did show that I think 7 in 10 Canadians think we should do that.

00:25:18:13 - 00:25:37:14
Gregory
And right now it's very two-sided. It's Trump against the world. Especially since he announced the the reciprocal tariffs, there has been worldwide reaction to that. And so it's almost like we kind of got ahead of it a little bit. And now the rest of the world is going to catch up. 7 in 10 Canadians say that our future is better served by aligning with like-minded countries in Europe rather than the U.S.

00:25:37:16 - 00:26:00:05
Gregory
And we're going to keep testing in the future as we continue this research to see whether this is going to kind of persist. So we've reached a new phase in the debate, but it's not going to abate quickly. And we expect these threats to to persist at least until the midterms, because I think everybody would not be surprised if coming up to the U.S. midterms, that the Republicans and the President are looking for ways to get votes and stir up reaction.

00:26:00:07 - 00:26:24:01
Gregory
They could start targeting Canada or other countries again with new accusations about something that didn't work over the last year and a half that was supposed to. And so that's why they have to to then come after Canada or other countries again. So I think that we can expect to see this issue persist for the medium-term, even if we start negotiating a new agreement with the Americans, as we will have to do, because the free trade agreement is up for renewal.

00:26:24:03 - 00:26:27:06
Gregory
So that's what's going to inform, I think, the next little while.

00:26:27:07 - 00:26:44:04
Naumi
You know, this isn't over soon. This is going to last for a while. My my message for marketers, though, would be don't wait, right. You know, months or years, hopefully not years or months, you know from now, consumers will have made their brand decision. They'll be used to buying those, you know Canadian strawberries that you were talking about, right? 

00:26:44:04 - 00:27:12:12
Naumi
Like there the moment of disruption will be over. And I think the biggest message again is, you know, sort of make your case to Canadians now while they're reevaluating their decisions. It's, it's one lesson from the pandemic, it was a window of opportunity where, you know, consumers were sort of uncertain and it was an opportunity for brands. There's an interesting metric that we used to track during the pandemic is, you know, do you trust brands or the government more in terms of that source of information?

00:27:12:12 - 00:27:30:05
Naumi
And it was like 4 in 10 Canadians at the time said that they trust brands more than the government for,  as a source of information during the pandemic. So, you know, it's that same type of mentality right now. There's a lot of uncertainty. You know, like you said, there's there's an election. So people aren't even really sure what to think of the government.

00:27:30:08 - 00:27:49:09
Naumi
It's a moment for for brands to, to sort of step in and provide reassurance, help consumers make decisions. Again, sort of gauging it by how we operate as a research company. You know, there was a brief moment of pause in 2020 when the pandemic happened. Everyone was trying to figure out, you know, what the heck's going on, what's going to happen?

00:27:49:09 - 00:28:04:15
Naumi
And sort of paused. And we're seeing that we're in that moment, I think, during tariffs and and everyone's just sort of paused. We don't know what's going to happen, is it? Are we going to go in recession? We don't know. But by 2021 I know my teams anyways were crazy busy. Everyone wanted to know how consumer behaviour is shifting.

00:28:04:15 - 00:28:20:10
Naumi
What should they do? You know, how important is health and wellness? All these things. And I think we're going to see the same pattern now, right? There's a bit of a pause right now, but I'm expecting, you know, to, to be fairly inundated with questions around, okay, well, what should we do? I mean, we're already seeing it, right?

00:28:20:10 - 00:28:35:11
Naumi
We're getting a lot of attention obviously, around the topic, but I think as companies are thinking about, okay, well actually now what do I have to do with my brands? What does our portfolio look like? How am I going to communicate it? What's the messaging? What's the next creative? I think we're going to, we're going to see a lot of shifts.

00:28:35:13 - 00:28:54:00
Alison
And given that the pandemic learning is still relatively fresh for all of us, I don't think there will be the same length of pause, because we've seen that action and first-mover advantage when it's done well, can provide some pretty significant benefits. Great conversation. Before I let you go on with your busy days, I want to do a bit of a pivot.

00:28:54:02 - 00:29:10:20
Alison
You both have great long standing careers in research, and I know our listeners would absolutely benefit from learning from your journey and be very curious to learn from your journey. So to close off today's discussion, I would love you each to share the top advice that you would give to our listeners who aspire to follow in your leadership footsteps.

00:29:10:22 - 00:29:12:15
Alison
And Greg, why don't you kick us off?

00:29:12:17 - 00:29:31:16
Gregory
Sure. That's a great question. And, you know, I like to think that I've had a mix of good fortune and, and hard work in my career. One of the things that I would tell somebody who's starting their career out or even starting a new position, is put your hand up. Right? There, there is times when we have very busy periods, this being one of them, and this is a great project.

00:29:31:22 - 00:29:54:13
Gregory
We've had a lot of people at Ipsos who have wanted to work on it, but it's the ones who put their hand up and really gone in with both feet that are going to benefit from that experience. They're going to benefit from, getting to know other people across the company. This was a bit unique for Ipsos because Naumi and I do such different things, but our teams are now working together on on a common cause, and they've gotten to know some of their colleagues as well by, by doing that, by putting their hand up.

00:29:54:13 - 00:30:03:23
Gregory
So if I had one piece of advice, it would be when, when, you know, crisis like this strikes or when there's an opportunity, I volunteer to be involved, because that's how you learn.

00:30:04:01 - 00:30:21:21
Naumi
That's a good one. I 100% agree. I would say another one is, you know, don't be afraid to be a little bit provocative to to tell the story. You know, the title of our the project is "Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil," which is a little bit, you know, more provocative than what you might expect from a, from a research company.

00:30:22:02 - 00:30:38:04
Naumi
But it all comes down to the storytelling, right? A lot of researchers are good with data, are good at numbers, but you've got to convert that into a story to grab people's attention. We live in an attention economy. And and you know, headlines and and the story and the narrative that you're able to tell, are important.

00:30:38:04 - 00:30:41:03
Naumi
And I think that's served me well, certainly in my career.

00:30:41:05 - 00:31:01:05
Alison
Our listeners will be very well-served to listen to both of those pieces of advice. So thank you very much. And Naumi and Greg, I really appreciate the conversation. It couldn't be more timely. And I love that Ipsos is going to be tracking this on an ongoing basis so we can see having you back down the road and see how things are evolving, and then also the nuanced, nationalism report that you mentioned.

00:31:01:07 - 00:31:09:06
Alison
What we'll do is provide a link to that in our notes as well. I know that will be of interest to our listeners, too. So thank you both. I really appreciate our time together today.

00:31:09:12 - 00:31:10:22
Naumi
Thanks so much for having us.

00:31:10:23 - 00:31:12:21
Gregory
Thank you very much.

00:31:12:23 - 00:31:25:12
Presenter
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